US$9.92: That's What Analysts Think Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a mediocre week for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$5.48 in the week since its latest full-year results. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at US$713m, beating analyst expectations by 2.0%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vivid Seats

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vivid Seats' 13 analysts is for revenues of US$822.4m in 2024. This reflects a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 40% to US$0.31 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$822.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$9.92, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vivid Seats at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vivid Seats' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 53% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vivid Seats is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vivid Seats. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vivid Seats. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Vivid Seats going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Vivid Seats you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.