Is Comcast’s 27.2% Slide in 2025 Creating a Long Term Opportunity?

• Wondering if Comcast is finally cheap enough to be interesting, or just a value trap in disguise? This breakdown will walk you through what the current price is really telling us.
• The stock has drifted lower, with shares down 0.3% over the last week, 1.0% over the past month, and 27.2% year to date. This naturally raises questions about whether the market is mispricing its long term prospects.
• Recently, Comcast has stayed in the spotlight as investors weigh cord cutting pressures against the growth of its broadband and streaming businesses. News around shifting media consumption habits and ongoing infrastructure investment has added fuel to the debate about whether the current slide is justified or overdone.
• In that context, Comcast currently scores a 6/6 valuation check score, suggesting the stock screens as undervalued across several key metrics. In the rest of this article we will unpack those valuation methods, then finish by looking at a more holistic way to think about what Comcast might be worth.

Find out why Comcast's -29.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Comcast Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into present dollars. For Comcast, Simply Wall St uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model built on cash flow projections.

Comcast currently generates around $17.6 billion in free cash flow, a substantial base that analysts expect to remain robust as the business matures. Analyst estimates cover the next several years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates those trends further out, with projected free cash flow of about $19.6 billion by 2035. All of these cash flows are modeled in $, then discounted back to today to account for risk and the time value of money.

Putting it together, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $84.42 per share, which implies the stock is trading at a 67.7% discount to its estimated fair value. In other words, the cash flow outlook suggests Comcast shares appear meaningfully undervalued at current levels according to this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED (per this DCF model)

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Comcast is undervalued by 67.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Comcast.

Approach 2: Comcast Price vs Earnings

For a mature, consistently profitable business like Comcast, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. In general, companies with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk tend to justify higher PE ratios, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually command a discount.

Comcast currently trades on a PE of about 4.4x, which is far below both the Media industry average of around 16.0x and the broader peer group average of roughly 50.3x. On those simple comparisons alone, the stock appears extremely cheap. However, these raw comparisons can be misleading because they do not fully adjust for Comcast’s specific growth outlook, risk profile, margins, or size.

That is where Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio comes in. The Fair Ratio of 15.5x is a proprietary estimate of what Comcast’s PE should be, based on its earnings growth, profitability, industry, market cap and risk factors. Because it is tailored to the company, it provides a more nuanced view than headline peer or industry averages. With the market currently valuing Comcast at 4.4x compared with a Fair Ratio of 15.5x, the stock screens as meaningfully undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1444 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Comcast Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page used by millions of investors to connect their story about a company with the numbers behind it.

A Narrative is simply your own view of how Comcast’s business will evolve, translated into a financial forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then into an estimated fair value so you can directly compare that fair value with today’s share price to decide whether you think it is a buy, hold or sell.

Because Narratives live on the platform, they are updated dynamically as new information arrives, such as earnings results or big news like Comcast bidding for Warner assets or signing fresh sports rights. This means your story and valuation can evolve with the facts rather than staying frozen in time.

For Comcast, one investor might build a bullish Narrative that sees upside toward about $49 per share based on strong broadband, parks and streaming momentum. Another may construct a more cautious Narrative that anchors closer to $31 per share if they expect saturated broadband, rising costs and heavier competition to weigh on long term returns.

Do you think there's more to the story for Comcast? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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