MP Materials (MP) Is Down 13.0% After Government-Backed Deals Cement Role in Western Rare Earth Supply

• In 2025, MP Materials announced record rare earth production, new long-term agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple worth hundreds of millions of US dollars, and a Saudi refining joint venture backed by government funding to bolster non-Chinese supply chains.
• Together, these contracts, investments, and partnerships underline MP Materials’ emerging role as a core supplier in Western rare earth and magnet value chains, with government and blue-chip counterparties sharing both capital and commercial risk.
• Next, we’ll examine how the Saudi refinery venture and government-backed contracts reshape MP Materials’ existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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MP Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To own MP Materials, you have to believe rare earth independence for the U.S. and its allies will keep drawing policy support, long-term contracts, and capital into the business. The 2025 Apple and Department of Defense deals, plus the Saudi refining venture, reinforce that thesis and appear to strengthen the most immediate catalyst: a shift from losses to more stable, contracted cash flows. At the same time, they sharpen the biggest near term risk around execution on rapid downstream expansion.

Among the recent announcements, the Department of Defense’s roughly US$400 million investment with a price floor for neodymium praseodymium stands out. It ties directly into MP’s push to ramp its 10X magnet facility and heavy rare earth circuit, supporting the transition from a single mine producer to an integrated rare earth and magnet supplier. That said, investors still have to weigh the trade off between contract stability and exposure to future price upside.

Yet behind these headline contracts, investors should also be aware of the concentration risk around a small group of anchor customers...

Read the full narrative on MP Materials (it's free!)

MP Materials' narrative projects $1.0 billion revenue and $236.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 61.3% yearly revenue growth and a $337.7 million earnings increase from -$101.4 million today.

Uncover how MP Materials' forecasts yield a $79.29 fair value, a 49% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community see MP’s fair value anywhere between US$9.67 and US$85, with views spread across the full range. Against this, the recent government backed contracts and Saudi refinery plans put a spotlight on how much of MP’s future performance may depend on executing its downstream build out as promised.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on MP Materials - why the stock might be worth as much as 60% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MP Materials Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MP Materials research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MP Materials research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MP Materials' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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