Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that FMC Corporation (NYSE:FMC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for FMC
What Is FMC's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 FMC had US$3.96b of debt, an increase on US$3.27b, over one year. However, it also had US$302.4m in cash, and so its net debt is US$3.66b.
How Strong Is FMC's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that FMC had liabilities of US$3.38b due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.11b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$302.4m in cash and US$2.95b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$4.24b.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since FMC has a market capitalization of US$7.49b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
FMC has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.2 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.9 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Even worse, FMC saw its EBIT tank 45% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine FMC's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, FMC recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Mulling over FMC's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. And even its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow fails to inspire much confidence. Overall, it seems to us that FMC's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for FMC (of which 3 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:FMC
FMC
An agricultural sciences company, provides crop protection, plant health, and professional pest and turf management products.
6 star dividend payer and undervalued.