Why Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Is Up 11.0% After Grasberg Mine Suspension and Stake Transfer News

• In September 2025, Freeport-McMoRan announced that it had suspended operations at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a fatal mud rush incident, initiated a detailed investigation, and updated its production and dividend guidance amidst ongoing search and rescue efforts.
• Amidst these operational challenges, Freeport-McMoRan agreed to transfer an additional 12% stake in its Indonesian subsidiary to the government to secure the long-term future of one of the world’s largest copper mines.
• We'll explore how the Grasberg mine suspension and evolving Indonesian partnership may impact Freeport-McMoRan’s future growth outlook.

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Freeport-McMoRan Investment Narrative Recap

Being a Freeport-McMoRan shareholder centers on optimism about global copper demand and the company’s ability to translate its vast resource base, especially at assets like Grasberg, into profitable long-term growth. The recent mine suspension at Grasberg introduces new uncertainty around short-term production and revenue, reinforcing operational risk as the key near-term challenge, even as catalysts like the US copper premium and innovation continue to play a role. Among the latest developments, Freeport’s downward revision of Q3 2025 earnings guidance, driven by a 4% drop in expected copper sales and 6% for gold, stands out as directly related to the Grasberg disruption. This adjustment reflects the immediate financial consequences of the suspended operations and highlights how quickly operational incidents can impact key business metrics. But with such operational setbacks, investors should also be aware that the uncertainty around resuming full production at Grasberg is now...

Read the full narrative on Freeport-McMoRan (it's free!)

Freeport-McMoRan's outlook anticipates $31.1 billion in revenue and $3.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario requires a 6.4% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.4 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.9 billion level.

Uncover how Freeport-McMoRan's forecasts yield a $50.06 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s fair value estimates for Freeport-McMoRan range widely from US$25.20 to US$59.91, spanning 11 individual viewpoints. These diverse perspectives reflect both caution and conviction as you weigh the immediate risks of complex Indonesian operations and their broader effect on long-term growth.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Freeport-McMoRan - why the stock might be worth 36% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Freeport-McMoRan Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Freeport-McMoRan research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Freeport-McMoRan's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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