These 4 Measures Indicate That Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) Is Using Debt Extensively

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Cleveland-Cliffs

What Is Cleveland-Cliffs's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Cleveland-Cliffs had debt of US$3.75b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from US$4.59b over a year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

How Strong Is Cleveland-Cliffs' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Cleveland-Cliffs had liabilities of US$3.40b due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.40b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$30.0m and US$1.87b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$7.90b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$7.01b, we think shareholders really should watch Cleveland-Cliffs's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Cleveland-Cliffs's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.8 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.1 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. We saw Cleveland-Cliffs grow its EBIT by 9.2% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Cleveland-Cliffs's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Cleveland-Cliffs produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 77% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Neither Cleveland-Cliffs's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Cleveland-Cliffs is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cleveland-Cliffs you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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