At US$79.04, Is It Time To Put CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) On Your Watch List?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on CF Industries Holdings’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings

What's The Opportunity In CF Industries Holdings?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 3.1% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy CF Industries Holdings today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $81.55, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since CF Industries Holdings’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of CF Industries Holdings look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of CF Industries Holdings, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, CF appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on CF for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on CF should the price fluctuate below its true value.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CF Industries Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be familiar with.

If you are no longer interested in CF Industries Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.