Exploring Ball (BALL) Valuation After Share Price Slides 18% Over Past Three Months

Simply Wall St
Ball (BALL) shares have struggled recently, sliding nearly 8% over the past month and down 18% in the past 3 months. Investors may be re-evaluating the outlook as sluggish returns persist.

See our latest analysis for Ball.

The recent slide comes after a year of tough going for Ball, with its share price dropping 13.6% year-to-date and a hefty 27% total shareholder return loss over the past twelve months. Momentum clearly is not on Ball’s side right now, which suggests that investors may be reassessing growth prospects and risk as broader industry pressures persist.

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With Ball now trading at a significant discount to both analyst targets and its estimated intrinsic value, the question arises: is there a real buying opportunity here, or has the market already factored in all future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.6% Undervalued

At $47.04, Ball trades well below the narrative’s fair value estimate of $63.23, signaling a sizable gap between the market price and future potential. Will the market catch up as the company executes on operational improvements?

Accelerating demand for recyclable aluminum packaging, especially in Europe and emerging markets, is driving robust volume growth above historical averages as sustainability and anti-plastic trends gain traction globally. This is expected to sustain revenue growth and potentially improve operating leverage. The shift in consumer behavior toward ready-to-drink beverages and energy drinks is supporting ongoing volume expansion, particularly across North America and EMEA. This positions Ball to grow at or ahead of market rates and favorably impacts top-line revenue and capacity utilization rates.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how analysts justify such a wide gap between price and fair value? The secret isn’t just double-digit expected growth. Unpack the bold revenue acceleration, margin expansion, and a future profit multiple that’s lower than today to see what powers this optimistic outlook behind the scenes.

Result: Fair Value of $63.23 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, customer concentration and volatile input costs could disrupt Ball’s recovery story. This could potentially weigh on margins and long-term profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Ball narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Tell a Different Story

While our narrative points to Ball being undervalued based on its long-term growth forecast, the market’s current price-to-earnings ratio sends a very different signal. Ball trades at 22 times earnings, which is not only higher than the global packaging industry average of 16.4, but also above its peer average and even above its own fair ratio of 21.4. This gap suggests that, despite the low share price, the stock still carries valuation risk compared to industry standards. Does the potential for future growth outweigh these premium multiples, or is caution warranted?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:BALL PE Ratio as at Oct 2025

Build Your Own Ball Narrative

If you would rather form your own perspective or reach different conclusions, dive into the data yourself and shape your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ball research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Ball might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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