ATI (NYSE:ATI) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

September 29, 2022
  •  Updated
October 04, 2022
Source: Shutterstock

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that ATI Inc. (NYSE:ATI) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for ATI

What Is ATI's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, ATI had US$1.66b of debt, up from US$1.57b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$274.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.39b.

NYSE:ATI Debt to Equity History September 29th 2022

How Healthy Is ATI's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that ATI had liabilities of US$799.9m due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.54b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$274.5m in cash and US$681.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.38b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$3.72b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

ATI's debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.4 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. One redeeming factor for ATI is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of US$328m, over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ATI's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, ATI saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say ATI's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that ATI's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for ATI (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether ATI is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis