Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): Valuation Check After 2026 Guidance, Capex Plans and Insider Buying

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) just laid out its 2026 playbook, pairing detailed coal volume and cost guidance with fresh capex plans and insider buying that together give investors a clearer view of management’s conviction.

See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources.

The fresh 2026 guidance and mixed insider activity land against a backdrop where the share price sits at $186.65, with a robust 30 day share price return of 17.72 percent but a weaker 1 year total shareholder return of negative 11.85 percent. This suggests near term momentum is improving even as the longer term picture remains more subdued.

If you are weighing Alpha’s guidance against other opportunities in cyclical names, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for ideas with strong insider alignment.

With shares trading slightly above analyst targets but below intrinsic value estimates, Alpha’s muted long term returns and hefty volume plans raise the real question: is this an overlooked value setup, or is the market already pricing in the next upcycle?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 1.2% Overvalued

Compared with the latest fair value estimate of $184.50, Alpha’s $186.65 close implies only a marginal premium, setting up a finely balanced valuation debate.

Global underinvestment and persistent supply constraints in metallurgical coal mining (compounded by recent industry idlings and bankruptcies) are likely to elevate future prices and market share for well-capitalized producers like Alpha, pointing to potential upside for future revenue and margins as demand recovers or steadies, especially in high-growth markets like India and Brazil.

Read the complete narrative.

To see what underpins this tightly priced call on Alpha’s future, note that the growth path, margin reset, and low implied earnings multiple are all hiding in plain sight.

Result: Fair Value of $184.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, structural shifts toward scrap based steelmaking and potential regulatory tightening could cap met coal demand and compress Alpha’s longer term earnings power.

Find out about the key risks to this Alpha Metallurgical Resources narrative.

Another Angle On Value

While the narrative calls Alpha slightly overvalued versus a fair value of $184.50, its price to sales ratio of 1.1 times looks cheaper than both the US Metals and Mining industry at 1.6 times and peers at 1.7 times. It is, however, slightly above a 0.9 times fair ratio, leaving investors to decide whether this is a value gap or a warning sign.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Alpha Metallurgical Resources Narrative

If you see Alpha’s story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Alpha Metallurgical Resources.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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