Linde (LIN): Reassessing Valuation After Bullish Analyst Updates and Insider Buying Signals

Linde (LIN) just caught a bid after a wave of analyst commentary converged on the same theme: the growth story still looks intact thanks to a deep project backlog and disciplined capital allocation.

See our latest analysis for Linde.

The recent 3.21% one day share price gain to about $416 comes after a choppy few months, with a negative 90 day share price return but a still impressive 32.36% total shareholder return over three years. This suggests longer term momentum remains intact even as the market reassesses near term risks.

If Linde's story has you rethinking where growth and resilience can come from, it might be worth scanning other fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that have management teams backing their own thesis with real money.

With shares still trading at roughly a 21% discount to consensus targets and management signaling 8 to 12% EPS growth, is Linde quietly undervalued today, or is the market already baking in that next leg of expansion?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.2% Undervalued

With Linde closing at $416.24 versus a narrative fair value of about $502.88, the current setup implies a sizeable valuation gap driven by long duration growth assumptions and a relatively low discount rate of roughly 8.03%.

Strategic investments and customer commitments in rapidly expanding growth markets such as commercial space launches, electronics, and clean hydrogen (with almost $5 billion in new clean energy contracts) provide a runway for high margin revenue streams and new project conversion that will structurally lift blended margins and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady mid single digit revenue growth, rising margins, and shrinking share count can still justify a premium earnings multiple? The narrative lays out a detailed earnings path that leans on long term contracts and capital discipline. Curious which assumptions really carry that fair value sticker price? Dive in to unpack the full playbook behind this 17.2% upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $502.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained industrial weakness in Europe or prolonged oversupply and pricing pressure in key gases could easily derail that seemingly straightforward upside path.

Find out about the key risks to this Linde narrative.

Another View: What Do The Ratios Say?

While the narrative fair value points to upside, today Linde trades on a 27.4x earnings multiple versus a 26.6x fair ratio and 24x for the US Chemicals industry, though still below a 31.6x peer average. That leaves a thin margin for error if growth disappoints, or a runway for catch up if peers rerate first?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Linde Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a full narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Linde research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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