Stock Analysis

The total return for Innospec (NASDAQ:IOSP) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last three years

NasdaqGS:IOSP
Source: Shutterstock

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. Just take a look at Innospec Inc. (NASDAQ:IOSP), which is up 32%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 23% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 6.4% in the last year, including dividends.

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

View our latest analysis for Innospec

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Innospec was able to grow its EPS at 16% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 10% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:IOSP Earnings Per Share Growth December 10th 2024

We know that Innospec has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Innospec will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Innospec's TSR for the last 3 years was 37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Innospec provided a TSR of 6.4% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 4% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. Before spending more time on Innospec it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

We will like Innospec better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.