Does Ferroglobe’s (GSM) Completed Share Buyback Reveal a Shift in Capital Allocation Priorities?

• Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, Ferroglobe repurchased 3,710,111 shares for US$15.87 million, bringing its total buyback under the program announced May 14, 2024, to 13,465,973 shares or 7.19% of shares outstanding at a cost of US$52 million.
• This completed buyback significantly reduced Ferroglobe’s outstanding share count, underscoring management’s capital allocation priorities and their confidence in the company’s future prospects.
• We'll examine how Ferroglobe’s recently completed share buyback shapes its investment outlook and potential for future earnings growth.

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Ferroglobe Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Ferroglobe, you need conviction in a recovery for silicon metal prices sparked by new trade protections and improved demand from next-generation industries such as solar and electric vehicles. The just-completed share buyback reflects management’s emphasis on shareholder value but does not materially impact what remains the short-term catalyst, EU safeguard measures on silicon metal, or the biggest risk, namely prolonged oversupply and pricing pressure from Chinese imports.

Among recent announcements, Ferroglobe's Q2 2025 results, which revealed a net loss amid falling sales, provide essential backdrop. Share buybacks may boost per-share metrics, but, without a turnaround in margins or demand visibility, future earnings remain vulnerable until the industry’s supply-demand imbalance shifts.

By contrast, investors should keep a close eye on any further escalation in low-priced Chinese silicon imports because...

Read the full narrative on Ferroglobe (it's free!)

Ferroglobe's narrative projects $2.0 billion revenue and $222.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.3% yearly revenue growth and a $308.4 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$86.3 million.

Uncover how Ferroglobe's forecasts yield a $8.00 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Ferroglobe span US$8 to US$20.54, based on two contrasting outlooks. While some foresee upside, ongoing margin pressure from oversupply could temper expectations so consider several viewpoints before reaching any conclusions.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Ferroglobe - why the stock might be worth just $8.00!

Build Your Own Ferroglobe Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ferroglobe research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ferroglobe research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ferroglobe's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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