OTCPK:TPDK.Y

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Topdanmark A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an insurance company in Denmark.

Rewards

Trading at 15.4% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 2.05% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 4.57% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years



Snowflake Analysis

Acceptable track record with limited growth.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Topdanmark's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TPDK.Y has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

6.5%

TPDK.Y

0.9%

US Insurance

0.7%

US Market


1 Year Return

9.1%

TPDK.Y

21.8%

US Insurance

18.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: TPDK.Y underperformed the US Insurance industry which returned 21.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TPDK.Y underperformed the US Market which returned 18.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TPDK.YIndustryMarket
7 Day6.5%0.9%0.7%
30 Day12.6%0.5%1.5%
90 Day-1.3%1.3%5.0%
1 Year12.3%9.1%24.8%21.8%20.8%18.2%
3 Year107.7%93.2%32.5%22.3%45.2%35.8%
5 Year62.9%51.5%69.5%49.3%71.6%52.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Topdanmark's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Topdanmark undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

15.4%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TPDK.Y ($4.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($5.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPDK.Y is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TPDK.Y is poor value based on its PE Ratio (20.7x) compared to the Insurance industry average (16.7x).

PE vs Market: TPDK.Y is poor value based on its PE Ratio (20.7x) compared to the US market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TPDK.Y is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (10.1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TPDK.Y is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4.8x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Topdanmark forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

2.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TPDK.Y's forecast earnings growth (2.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: TPDK.Y's earnings (2.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TPDK.Y's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TPDK.Y's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TPDK.Y's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TPDK.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.3%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Topdanmark performed over the past 5 years?

2.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TPDK.Y has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TPDK.Y's current net profit margins (4.7%) are lower than last year (6.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TPDK.Y's earnings have grown by 2.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TPDK.Y's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TPDK.Y had negative earnings growth (-5.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (-10.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: TPDK.Y's Return on Equity (23.1%) is considered high.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Topdanmark's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TPDK.Y has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TPDK.Y's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.3x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: TPDK.Y's level of assets compared to its equity is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if TPDK.Y has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: TPDK.Y reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if TPDK.Y has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: TPDK.Y has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if TPDK.Y has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Topdanmark's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.57%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company4.6%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.3%forecastin3Years5.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: TPDK.Y's dividend (4.57%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.43%).

High Dividend: TPDK.Y's dividend (4.57%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.7%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TPDK.Y has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: TPDK.Y has only been paying a dividend for 2 years, and since then payments have fallen.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (94.5%), TPDK.Y's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: TPDK.Y's dividends in 3 years are not forecast to be well covered by earnings (95.1% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Topdanmark's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Peter Hermann (46yo)

1.8yrs

Tenure

ø7,286,700

Compensation

Mr. Peter Hermann has been the Chief Executive Officer of Topdanmark A/S since February 5, 2018 and has been its Member of Executive Board since February 5, 2018. Mr. Hermann has been the Chief Executive O ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Peter's total compensation ($USD1.08M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.09M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Peter's compensation with company performance.


Management Age and Tenure

1.9yrs

Average Tenure

53yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: TPDK.Y's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

0.8yrs

Average Tenure

51yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TPDK.Y's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Niels Olesen

    Head of Accounting

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Lars Thykier (64yo)

    CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: ø6.60m
  • Steffen Heegaard (60yo)

    Group Communications

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Peter Hermann (46yo)

    CEO & Member of Executive Board

    • Tenure: 1.8yrs
    • Compensation: ø7.29m
  • Lars Skovsende (47yo)

    Head of Intern Revision

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Jens Ellborg (55yo)

    Head of Reinsurance

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Brian Jacobsen (56yo)

    COO & Member of Executive Board

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
    • Compensation: ø6.30m
  • Thomas Erichsen (47yo)

    CTO & Member of Executive Board

    • Tenure: 1.2yrs
    • Compensation: ø5.20m
  • Jens Green (53yo)

    Head of Marketing

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Louise Hørdum (49yo)

    Head of Human Resources

    • Tenure: 1.9yrs

Board Members

  • Petri Niemisvirta (49yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 2.7yrs
    • Compensation: ø385.00k
  • Ricard Wennerklint (50yo)

    Chairman

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
    • Compensation: ø642.00k
  • Morten Thorsrud (48yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
  • Jens Aaløse (53yo)

    Deputy Chairman

    • Tenure: 1.7yrs
    • Compensation: ø770.00k
  • Mette Jensen (43yo)

    Employee Representative Director

    • Tenure: 4.9yrs
    • Compensation: ø481.00k
  • Anne Eberhard (56yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
  • Cristina Hansen (65yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.7yrs
  • Elise Bundgaard (51yo)

    Employee Representative Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Ole Mortensen (62yo)

    Employee Representative Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs

Company Information

Topdanmark A/S's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Topdanmark A/S
  • Ticker: TPDK.Y
  • Exchange: OTCPK
  • Founded: 1985
  • Industry: Multi-line Insurance
  • Sector: Insurance
  • Market Cap: ø28.530b
  • Listing Market Cap: ø4.227b
  • Shares outstanding: 86.88m
  • Website: https://www.topdanmark.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Topdanmark A/S
  • Borupvang 4
  • Ballerup
  • 2750
  • Denmark

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TOPCPSE (OMX Nordic Exchange Copenhagen)YesOrdinary SharesDKDKKJan 1992
0QCQLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBDKKJan 1992
TOPCBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBDKKJan 1992
TPDK.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)ADRUSUSDOct 2008

Biography

Topdanmark A/S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an insurance company in Denmark. The company offers non-life insurance products, motor insurance policies, professional risk management advice, a ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/10 00:27
End of Day Share Price2019/12/09 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.