Assured Guaranty
Market Cap
US$3.4b
Last Updated
2021/03/01 00:03 UTC
Data Sources
Company Financials +
Executive Summary
Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. More Details
Rewards
Risk Analysis
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 23.8% per year for the next 3 years
Snowflake Analysis
Undervalued established dividend payer.
Similar Companies
Share Price & News
How has Assured Guaranty's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?
Latest Share Price and Events
Stable Share Price: AGO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: AGO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
Market Performance
7 Day Return
11.9%
AGO
-0.2%
US Insurance
-3.6%
US Market
1 Year Return
8.4%
AGO
11.0%
US Insurance
36.5%
US Market
Return vs Industry: AGO underperformed the US Insurance industry which returned 11% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AGO underperformed the US Market which returned 36.4% over the past year.
Shareholder returns
| AGO | Industry | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Day | 11.9% | -0.2% | -3.6% |
| 30 Day | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.7% |
| 90 Day | 46.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% |
| 1 Year | 11.4%8.4% | 14.1%11.0% | 39.5%36.5% |
| 3 Year | 35.5%27.5% | 23.2%14.0% | 53.5%43.6% |
| 5 Year | 90.3%73.2% | 71.2%49.8% | 117.5%93.2% |
Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market
How volatile is Assured Guaranty's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?
Simply Wall St News
3 weeks ago | Simply Wall St
Did Assured Guaranty's (NYSE:AGO) Share Price Deserve to Gain 64%?1 month ago | Simply Wall St
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) A Good Fit For Your Dividend Portfolio?2 months ago | Simply Wall St
How Much Are Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) Insiders Spending On Buying Shares?Valuation
Is Assured Guaranty undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
26.4%
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: AGO ($44.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($60.08)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AGO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: AGO is good value based on its PE Ratio (10.4x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (15x).
PE vs Market: AGO is good value based on its PE Ratio (10.4x) compared to the US market (21.3x).
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: AGO is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1x).
Next Steps
Future Growth
How is Assured Guaranty forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?
-23.8%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-23.8% per year).
Earnings vs Market: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-23.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AGO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AGO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AGO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AGO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.3%).
Next Steps
Past Performance
How has Assured Guaranty performed over the past 5 years?
-26.2%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: AGO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: AGO's current net profit margins (35.2%) are lower than last year (42.5%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AGO's earnings have declined by 26.2% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AGO's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AGO had negative earnings growth (-9.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (-9.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: AGO's Return on Equity (5.5%) is considered low.
Next Steps
Financial Health
How is Assured Guaranty's financial position?
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: AGO's short term assets ($3.4B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($3.8B).
Long Term Liabilities: AGO's short term assets ($3.4B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($4.8B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: AGO's debt to equity ratio (16.3%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: AGO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 21.4% to 16.3% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: AGO's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.
Interest Coverage: AGO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.5x coverage).
Balance Sheet
Next Steps
Dividend
What is Assured Guaranty current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
1.99%
Current Dividend Yield
Upcoming Dividend Payment
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: AGO's dividend (1.99%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.34%).
High Dividend: AGO's dividend (1.99%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.77%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: AGO's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: AGO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to Shareholders
Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (18.9%), AGO's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.
Future Payout to Shareholders
Future Dividend Coverage: AGO's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (31.8% payout ratio).
Next Steps
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
9.7yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Dominic Frederico (67 yo)
17.17yrs
Tenure
US$12,153,470
Compensation
Mr. Dominic John Frederico is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since December 2003 and serves as its Deputy Chairman. Mr. Frederico serves as the Chief Executive Officer a...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Dominic's total compensation ($USD12.15M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.98M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Dominic's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Leadership Team
| Name | Position | Tenure | Compensation | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deputy Chairman | 17.17yrs | US$12.15m | 2.1% $ 71.2m | |
| Chief Financial Officer | 9.67yrs | US$4.67m | 0.34% $ 11.4m | |
| General Counsel & Secretary | 3.08yrs | US$3.60m | 0.080% $ 2.7m | |
| Chief Surveillance Officer | 11.25yrs | US$3.53m | 0.25% $ 8.5m | |
| Chief Investment Officer | 0.50yr | no data | 0.088% $ 3.0m | |
| Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 1.75yrs | no data | 0.011% $ 360.0k | |
| Chief Technology Officer | 1.08yrs | no data | no data | |
| Chief Information Officer | no data | no data | no data | |
| Senior Managing Director of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications | 9.67yrs | no data | no data | |
| Senior Managing Director of Human Resources | no data | no data | no data | |
| Chief Risk Officer | 17.08yrs | US$972.91k | 0.23% $ 7.9m | |
| Senior MD & Co-Head of Structured Finance | no data | no data | no data |
9.7yrs
Average Tenure
60yo
Average Age
Experienced Management: AGO's management team is seasoned and experienced (9.7 years average tenure).
Board Members
| Name | Position | Tenure | Compensation | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deputy Chairman | 17.17yrs | US$12.15m | 2.1% $ 71.2m | |
| Independent Chairman of the Board | 5.75yrs | US$523.01k | 0.33% $ 11.3m | |
| Independent Director | 16.83yrs | US$354.75k | 0.091% $ 3.1m | |
| Independent Director | 5.5yrs | US$320.67k | 0.045% $ 1.5m | |
| Independent Director | 5.5yrs | US$352.14k | 0.057% $ 1.9m | |
| Independent Director | 7.75yrs | US$418.65k | 0.030% $ 1.0m | |
| Independent Director | 16.83yrs | US$340.88k | 0.081% $ 2.8m | |
| Independent Director | 15.5yrs | US$322.65k | 0.081% $ 2.7m | |
| Independent Director | 8.5yrs | US$331.50k | 0.046% $ 1.5m | |
| Independent Director | 6.75yrs | US$295.00k | 0.023% $ 795.1k |
7.8yrs
Average Tenure
70yo
Average Age
Experienced Board: AGO's board of directors are considered experienced (7.8 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Assured Guaranty Ltd.
- Ticker: AGO
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2003
- Industry: Property and Casualty Insurance
- Sector: Insurance
- Market Cap: US$3.386b
- Shares outstanding: 76.58m
- Website: https://www.assuredguaranty.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Assured Guaranty Ltd.
- 30 Woodbourne Avenue
- Hamilton
- HM 08
- Bermuda
Listings
| Ticker | Exchange | Primary Security | Security Type | Country | Currency | Listed on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) | Yes | Common Stock | US | USD | Apr 2004 |
| DHU | DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) | Yes | Common Stock | DE | EUR | Apr 2004 |
| AGO N | BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores) | Yes | Common Stock | MX | MXN | Apr 2004 |
Biography
Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company ...
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2021/03/01 00:03 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2021/02/26 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2020/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2020/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.