Here's Why We Think Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO). Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide Assured Guaranty with the means to add long-term value to shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty

How Fast Is Assured Guaranty Growing?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. To the delight of shareholders, Assured Guaranty has achieved impressive annual EPS growth of 39%, compound, over the last three years. While that sort of growth rate isn't sustainable for long, it certainly catches the eye of prospective investors.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. Not all of Assured Guaranty's revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers used in this article might not be the best representation of the underlying business. Assured Guaranty maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 46% to US$1.0b. That's progress.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Assured Guaranty.

Are Assured Guaranty Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It's pleasing to see company leaders with putting their money on the line, so to speak, because it increases alignment of incentives between the people running the business, and its true owners. Assured Guaranty followers will find comfort in knowing that insiders have a significant amount of capital that aligns their best interests with the wider shareholder group. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$245m. This suggests that leadership will be very mindful of shareholders' interests when making decisions!

Should You Add Assured Guaranty To Your Watchlist?

Assured Guaranty's earnings have taken off in quite an impressive fashion. That sort of growth is nothing short of eye-catching, and the large investment held by insiders should certainly brighten the view of the company. The hope is, of course, that the strong growth marks a fundamental improvement in the business economics. So based on this quick analysis, we do think it's worth considering Assured Guaranty for a spot on your watchlist. You still need to take note of risks, for example - Assured Guaranty has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

Although Assured Guaranty certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com