Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s (NYSE:AGO) Low P/E

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.7x Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 32x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Assured Guaranty. View them for free.

Assured Guaranty hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Assured Guaranty.

How Is Assured Guaranty's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Assured Guaranty's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 44%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 41% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 2.9% per year as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's understandable that Assured Guaranty's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Assured Guaranty's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Assured Guaranty (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.