Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 24%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:RYAN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.2% to US$65.87 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.09, some 24% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$605m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Ryan Specialty Holdings

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Ryan Specialty Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$2.98b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 69% to US$1.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.50 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$71.48, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ryan Specialty Holdings analyst has a price target of US$84.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$56.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Ryan Specialty Holdings'historical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 20% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.1% annually. So although Ryan Specialty Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$71.48, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ryan Specialty Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ryan Specialty Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.