Primerica, Inc. (NYSE:PRI) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Primerica, Inc. (NYSE:PRI) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at US$245 following the release of its full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$2.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$15.94. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Primerica

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Primerica from five analysts is for revenues of US$2.94b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.5% to US$17.86. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.83 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$231, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Primerica, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$275 and the most bearish at US$204 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Primerica's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Primerica's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.7% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Primerica.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Primerica going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Primerica you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.