Progressive Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
Progressive has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 32.7%, while the Insurance industry saw earnings growing at 14.6% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 15.6% per year. Progressive's return on equity is 36.1%, and it has net margins of 12.9%.
Key information
32.67%
Earnings growth rate
32.61%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance Industry Growth | 8.02% |
| Revenue growth rate | 15.62% |
| Return on equity | 36.08% |
| Net Margin | 12.93% |
| Next Earnings Update | 15 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 13
Progressive Corporation: Exceptional Growth But Normalizing Margins
Summary Progressive Corporation maintains exceptional market-share gains and strong underwriting but faces near-term EPS declines despite continued revenue growth. PGR is reinvesting profitability into customer acquisition and selective rate reductions, leading to margin pressure as competition intensifies and peers restore profitability. Consensus expects PGR's EPS to decline through 2028, with valuation at 12.5x forward earnings reflecting anticipated margin normalization and limited near-term earnings growth. I maintain a cautious buy on PGR, citing robust capital efficiency, a resilient market position, and reasonable valuation despite margin risks and a less attractive yield profile. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 07
PGR: AI Expense Efficiencies Will Support Underwriting Discipline And Earnings Resilience
Analysts have nudged Progressive's implied fair value higher to about $291 from roughly $284, while slightly adjusting discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions, citing mixed recent earnings trends and growing interest in the company's potential role in the emerging AI economy. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Progressive shows a mix of higher and lower price targets, with several bullish analysts highlighting the company's potential earnings power and role in the developing use of AI across insurance.
Narrative Update • May 24
PGR: AI Expense Efficiencies Will Sustain Earnings Power Despite Softer Pricing
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Progressive slightly lower to about $231 from roughly $232, reflecting modest reductions to long term earnings expectations after recent price target cuts tied to April's catastrophe losses and concerns about softer auto pricing power. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution around Progressive, with price targets being nudged both higher and lower as analysts recalibrate expectations after the April earnings miss and shifting views on auto pricing power.Narrative Update • Apr 23
PGR: Expense Efficiencies And Underwriting Discipline Will Support Earnings Through Cycle Changes
Analysts now see Progressive's fair value at $284.03, down from $302.85. This reflects updated views on slightly softer revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin outlook, and a reduced future P/E multiple, even as recent Street targets have moved both higher and lower on near term pricing power, claims trends, and expense efficiency.Narrative Update • Apr 07
PGR: AI Expense Efficiencies Will Support Future Earnings Despite Softer Expectations
Analyst price targets for Progressive have edged lower by about $1, reflecting slightly softer assumptions on revenue growth and margins, even as many analysts still highlight areas like AI driven expense efficiencies and personal auto policy growth in their views. Analyst Commentary Street research on Progressive has turned more cautious on valuation, with a series of target cuts across banks and research houses, even as some firms still point to execution strengths in core auto and expense management.Narrative Update • Mar 24
PGR: Policy In Force Expansion And Efficiency Gains Will Support Future Earnings
Analysts have trimmed the Progressive price target by about $5 to reflect slightly lower assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. They cite softer auto pricing power, modestly lower premium growth, and a more competitive personal auto market, while also highlighting operating efficiencies and policy-in-force growth as ongoing supports.Narrative Update • Mar 09
PGR: Softening Cycle And Policy Momentum Will Support Future Earnings Power
The Analyst Price Target for Progressive edges down by about $1 to $238.10 as analysts factor in slightly lower valuation multiples, modestly softer premium growth, and more conservative assumptions for net investment income, while still recognizing steady policy growth and profitability expectations reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of cautious tweaks and ongoing confidence in Progressive, with most firms trimming price targets rather than making wholesale changes to their broader views on the business.Narrative Update • Feb 23
PGR: Softening Cycle And Policy Momentum Will Support Future Earnings Power
Our fair value estimate for Progressive has been trimmed by about $10 to $239, as analysts factor in slightly softer premium and policy growth, modest pressure on margins, and more conservative assumptions for investment income and future P/E multiples following a series of lower Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Progressive reflects a mixed but generally engaged view, with multiple firms fine-tuning their price targets and assumptions rather than making wholesale shifts in stance.Narrative Update • Feb 09
PGR: Underwriting Strength And Policy Momentum Will Support Earnings Through Cycle Changes
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Progressive, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $325 to about $303 as they factor in expectations for softer revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, a lower future P/E, and modestly higher profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Progressive has been mixed, but there are several clear positive threads that stand out for investors watching how professionals are framing the story.Narrative Update • Jan 24
PGR: Softening Insurance Cycle Will Test But Not Derail Earnings Power
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Progressive, lowering our fair value estimate by about $6 to $248.98. This reflects slightly lower assumed profit margins and a reduced future P/E multiple, partially offset by modestly higher revenue growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Jan 09
PGR: Softer P&C Cycle Will Pressure Margins Despite Policy Momentum
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Progressive from US$215.56 to US$191.52, as they factor in softer P&C pricing and a lower future P/E of about 15x, while still seeing support from personal lines trends and policy growth. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Progressive reflects a mix of optimism on policy growth and margin resilience, alongside a more cautious tone on the broader P&C cycle and the stock's valuation.Narrative Update • Dec 26
PGR: Reaccelerating Auto Policy Additions Will Drive Earnings Power Through 2025
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Progressive slightly lower to $255.13 from $257.44, reflecting a modest reset in top-line growth expectations, while still highlighting resilient underwriting profitability, accelerating personal auto policy growth, and lighter catastrophe losses that together support higher earnings power over time. Analyst Commentary Street research on Progressive reflects a broadly constructive fundamental backdrop with some valuation discipline and event driven caution.Narrative Update • Dec 12
PGR: Strong Underwriting And Policy Momentum Will Drive Earnings Power Ahead
Analysts modestly reduced their price target on Progressive to about $325 from roughly $344, reflecting slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins. They also cite resilient policy growth, solid underwriting performance, and ongoing earnings power as supporting the stock's longer term value.Narrative Update • Nov 27
PGR: Improving Margins And Customer Additions Will Drive Stronger Performance Through 2025
Progressive's analyst price target has been modestly lowered, declining by approximately $2 to around $257, as analysts cite recent fluctuations in policy growth and underlying profitability trends that support their revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Progressive reflects a dynamic outlook, with both bullish and bearish perspectives shaping the current consensus.Narrative Update • Nov 13
PGR: Sustained Margin Strength And Share Repurchases Will Support Outperformance Ahead
The analyst price target for Progressive has been revised downward by nearly $2 to approximately $259 per share. Analysts cite recent policyholder credits and mixed sector performance as reasons for moderating expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 30
PGR: Earnings Momentum Will Outpace Sector Headwinds Amid Market Shifts
Progressive's analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $273 to $261, as analysts cite industry underperformance and company-specific developments such as lower than expected premium growth and the impact of one-time items on near-term results. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Progressive highlights a nuanced outlook, with both optimistic and cautious perspectives shaping the investment case.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks
Progressive's analyst price target has decreased modestly, dropping by $5.42 to $272.74. Analysts point to slower revenue growth and profit margin pressures, partially offset by industry-wide improvements in catastrophe losses and continued earnings resilience.Narrative Update • Sep 19
Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks
Progressive’s consensus price target was revised downward to $278.16, as analysts balanced solid recent earnings and investment income against growing concerns over softer policy growth, intensifying competition, and margin normalization, which are expected to cap near-term upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite recent earnings outperformance, particularly in July and August, driving upward EPS revisions and improved investment income outlooks despite ongoing competitive pressures.Analysis Article • Sep 18
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.10
The board of The Progressive Corporation ( NYSE:PGR ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.10 per share on...Narrative Update • Sep 04
Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks
Analysts cite persistent profit margin strength but growing caution around slowing growth prospects, increased competition, and sector headwinds—factors that offset upside potential and result in the consensus Analyst Price Target remaining unchanged at $283.56. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite Progressive's consistent outperformance on profit margins, with recent operating EPS beats exceeding expectations and normalized underwriting margin forecasts being revised slightly higher into 2027.Analysis Article • Aug 21
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.10
The Progressive Corporation's ( NYSE:PGR ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.10 per share on 10th of...Analysis Article • Jul 02
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.10
The board of The Progressive Corporation ( NYSE:PGR ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 11th of July...Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
Progressive Corporation: Performance Remains Strong, But Valuation Is Elevated
Summary Progressive Corporation has gained 27% over the past year, retaining most gains despite market sell-off, with solid Q1 results indicating strong performance. PGR's frequent monthly reporting provides transparency. Q1 earnings missed by $0.35 due to $212 million in securities losses, but revenue surged 17% with strong premium growth. Investments in technology and AI have increased expenses, but improved loss performance and a strong combined ratio suggest future profitability and operational efficiency. Despite potential headwinds from higher car prices due to tariffs, Progressive's clean balance sheet, strong underwriting, and defensive nature make it a 'Hold' with a full valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 12
The Progressive Corporation: Earnings Have Exploded, Take Advantage Of Recent Price Drop And Buy
Summary Progressive is rated a buy due to its record-breaking financial performance, robust growth in net premiums, and significant market share gains in 2024. Despite a recent share price drop, PGR has seen a 239% gain over 5 years and continues to outperform its peers. PGR's revenue nearly doubled in 5 years, with net income up 11.5x in two years, driven by strategic advertising and policy growth. The P&C insurance industry remains resilient amidst economic uncertainties, making PGR a strong investment opportunity with continued earnings growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
Progressive: Fundamentally Strong, But Earning Multiples Are Elevated, Hold For Now
Summary Progressive Corp reported strong Q4 and FY results, with a 21% increase in net written premiums and over 5 million new policies in 2024. The company is well-positioned for 2025, with improved pricing expected to support margin expansion and EPS growth, despite a slightly elevated valuation multiple. Risks include market saturation, potential recession impacts, and a slowdown in growth rates, which could affect investor expectations and valuation. I rate Progressive a 'hold' due to its strong fundamentals but elevated earnings multiple, awaiting a better entry point. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 06
Progressive: One Of The Most Resilient Uptrends, Still Fairly Priced
Summary Progressive is one of the largest and most recognized players in the U.S. insurance market with an efficient business model that relies on online sales. The Company’s growth potential, combined with outstanding ROCE and ROTC performance, makes it a highly attractive investment opportunity. The stock’s long-term upward movement confirms its financial strength, with 205% gains in the past five years. The intense liquidations triggered by the wildfires in California led the stock to its first notable support levels, generating a buy signal. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Progressive makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 89,415 | 11,559 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 87,637 | 11,308 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 85,166 | 10,713 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 82,376 | 10,432 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 78,508 | 8,716 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 75,343 | 8,463 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 71,961 | 8,085 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 67,802 | 6,862 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 65,022 | 5,738 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 62,083 | 3,865 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 58,661 | 2,707 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 55,882 | 1,714 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 52,048 | 828 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 49,587 | 695 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 48,609 | 831 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 47,687 | 825 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 48,073 | 2,158 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 47,677 | 3,324 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 46,602 | 4,046 | 15 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 45,692 | 5,458 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 44,760 | 6,459 | 1,077 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 42,638 | 5,678 | 1,077 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 41,963 | 5,064 | 1,062 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 40,545 | 4,375 | 1,033 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 39,022 | 3,564 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 38,998 | 3,943 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 36,292 | 3,137 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 35,257 | 3,224 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 33,824 | 2,949 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 31,955 | 2,594 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 31,041 | 2,912 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 29,337 | 2,215 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 27,924 | 1,885 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 26,816 | 1,592 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 25,823 | 1,399 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 24,967 | 1,374 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 24,181 | 1,197 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 23,417 | 1,031 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 22,690 | 978 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 22,029 | 1,058 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 21,495 | 1,230 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 20,832 | 1,268 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 20,609 | 1,307 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 20,106 | 1,325 | 0 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: PGR has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: PGR's current net profit margins (12.9%) are higher than last year (11.1%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: PGR's earnings have grown significantly by 32.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: PGR's earnings growth over the past year (32.6%) is below its 5-year average (32.7% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: PGR earnings growth over the past year (32.6%) did not outperform the Insurance industry 36.5%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: PGR's Return on Equity (36.1%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/25 04:09 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/25 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The Progressive Corporation is covered by 40 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jacob Kilstein | Argus Research Company |
| Taylor Scott | Barclays |
| Jay Gelb | Barclays |