NYSE:PGR

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services primarily in the United States.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Solid track record and good value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Progressive's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-7.5%

PGR

0.1%

US Insurance

0.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

-0.4%

PGR

13.8%

US Insurance

6.8%

US Market

Return vs Industry: PGR underperformed the US Insurance industry which returned 13.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PGR underperformed the US Market which returned 6.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

PGRIndustryMarket
7 Day-7.5%0.1%0.5%
30 Day-7.9%-1.8%-0.8%
90 Day-13.1%-1.6%-0.9%
1 Year3.9%-0.4%16.6%13.8%9.2%6.8%
3 Year137.6%119.0%44.6%33.5%45.6%36.2%
5 Year207.5%168.1%69.6%49.4%63.2%45.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Progressive's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Progressive undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

40.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PGR ($70) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($118)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PGR is good value based on its PE Ratio (13x) compared to the Insurance industry average (15.6x).

PE vs Market: PGR is good value based on its PE Ratio (13x) compared to the US market (17.7x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PGR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.9x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Progressive forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

-1.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.9% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PGR's revenue (9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PGR's revenue (9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PGR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.4%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Progressive performed over the past 5 years?

23.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PGR's earnings have grown significantly by 23.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PGR's earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) is below its 5-year average (23.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PGR earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) exceeded the Insurance industry 1.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: PGR's Return on Equity (22.1%) is considered high.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: PGR has a higher Return on Assets than the Insurance industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: PGR has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Progressive's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: PGR has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: PGR's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.963370x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: PGR's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if PGR has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: PGR reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if PGR has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: PGR has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if PGR has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Progressive's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.59%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company3.6%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.4%forecastin3Years0.7%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: PGR's dividend (3.59%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.45%).

High Dividend: PGR's dividend (3.59%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.73%).

Stable Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PGR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (52.3%), PGR's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of PGR's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Progressive's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tricia Griffith (55yo)

3.3yrs

Tenure

US$14,172,925

Compensation

Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith, also known as Tricia, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Progressive Corp. since July 1, 2016. Ms. Griffith serves as Director at Federal Express Corporation ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Tricia's total compensation ($USD14.17M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD11.18M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tricia's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

4.0yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: PGR's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

6.0yrs

Average Tenure

65.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: PGR's board of directors are considered experienced (6 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: PGR insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$973,34502 Aug 19
John Murphy
EntityIndividual
Shares12,000
Max PriceUS$81.11
SellUS$244,48217 Jun 19
Steven Broz
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Information Officer
Chief Information Officer
Shares3,000
Max PriceUS$81.49
SellUS$593,66322 May 19
Michael Sieger
EntityIndividual
Shares7,500
Max PriceUS$79.16
SellUS$134,61003 May 19
Kahina Van Dyke
EntityIndividual
Shares1,715
Max PriceUS$78.49
SellUS$551,74501 May 19
M. Charney
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Marketing
Chief Marketing Officer
Shares7,202
Max PriceUS$76.61
SellUS$613,04018 Apr 19
John Murphy
EntityIndividual
Shares8,000
Max PriceUS$76.63
SellUS$765,90018 Apr 19
M. Charney
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Marketing
Chief Marketing Officer
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$76.59
SellUS$549,15005 Mar 19
Michael Sieger
EntityIndividual
Shares7,500
Max PriceUS$73.22
SellUS$437,46005 Mar 19
Daniel Mascaro
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Shares6,000
Max PriceUS$72.91
SellUS$3,646,50005 Mar 19
William Cody
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Investment Officer
Chief Investment Officer
Shares50,000
Max PriceUS$72.93
SellUS$182,32505 Mar 19
Steven Broz
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Information Officer
Chief Information Officer
Shares2,500
Max PriceUS$72.93
BuyUS$19,69112 Feb 19
Barbara Snyder
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares292.41
Max PriceUS$67.34
SellUS$1,198,50001 Feb 19
M. Charney
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Marketing
Chief Marketing Officer
Shares18,000
Max PriceUS$67.00

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Jeff Charney (60yo)

    Chief Marketing Officer

    • Tenure: 8.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.41m
  • Bill Cody (57yo)

    Chief Investment Officer

    • Tenure: 16.7yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.80m
  • Tricia Griffith (55yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 3.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$14.17m
  • John Barbagallo (60yo)

    President of Commercial Lines

    • Tenure: 4.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.51m
  • John Sauerland (55yo)

    VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 4.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$7.13m
  • Mariann Marshall (57yo)

    VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Assistant Secretary

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
  • Steven Broz (49yo)

    Chief Information Officer

    • Tenure: 3.7yrs
  • Lori Niederst (46yo)

    Chief Human Resource Officer

    • Tenure: 2.9yrs
  • Daniel Mascaro (56yo)

    VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary

    • Tenure: 2.6yrs
  • Julia Hornack

    Investor Relations Contact

    • Tenure: 4.8yrs

Board Members

  • Pam Craig (62yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$260.01k
  • Patrick Nettles (76yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 15yrs
    • Compensation: US$295.03k
  • Jeff Kelly (66yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 7yrs
    • Compensation: US$270.05k
  • Roger Farah (66yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 11.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$300.01k
  • Chuck Davis (71yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 23.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$285.01k
  • Stuart Burgdoerfer (56yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 9.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$270.05k
  • Lawton Fitt (66yo)

    Independent Chairperson

    • Tenure: 1.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$440.03k
  • Tricia Griffith (55yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 3.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$14.17m
  • Phil Bleser (65yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 2.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$275.06k
  • Barbara Snyder (64yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 5yrs
    • Compensation: US$260.06k

Company Information

The Progressive Corporation's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Progressive Corporation
  • Ticker: PGR
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1937
  • Industry: Property and Casualty Insurance
  • Sector: Insurance
  • Market Cap: US$40.922b
  • Shares outstanding: 584.60m
  • Website: https://www.progressive.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Progressive Corporation
  • 300 North Commons Boulevard
  • Mayfield
  • Ohio
  • 44143
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
PGRNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesUSUSDOct 1972
PGVDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEUROct 1972
PGR *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon SharesMXMXNOct 1972
0KOCLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBUSDOct 1972

Biography

The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services  ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/21 23:38
End of Day Share Price2019/10/21 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.