The Progressive Corporation

NYSE:PGR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$149.8b

Progressive Valuation

Is PGR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PGR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PGR ($256.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($432.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PGR?

Key metric: As PGR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PGR. This is calculated by dividing PGR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PGR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.6x
EarningsUS$8.08b
Market CapUS$149.84b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PGR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PGR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11x
CB Chubb
11.6x1.0%US$116.1b
TRV Travelers Companies
13.2x2.6%US$59.2b
ALL Allstate
12.9x5.0%US$52.1b
ACGL Arch Capital Group
6.4x-14.5%US$38.2b
PGR Progressive
18.6x-0.09%US$149.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the peer average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PGR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2xn/aUS$85.49m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.68m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
PGR 18.6xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PGR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PGR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.6x
Fair PE Ratio13.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PGR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$256.52
US$277.13
+8.0%
14.1%US$335.00US$151.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$242.72
US$272.44
+12.2%
15.5%US$331.00US$151.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$254.27
US$259.47
+2.0%
14.5%US$309.00US$151.00n/a17
Sep ’25US$252.20
US$246.81
-2.1%
13.6%US$294.00US$144.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$215.28
US$236.63
+9.9%
13.3%US$296.00US$144.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$209.46
US$228.50
+9.1%
13.6%US$281.00US$137.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$211.18
US$223.88
+6.0%
15.1%US$286.00US$137.00n/a17
May ’25US$211.80
US$220.59
+4.1%
14.9%US$273.00US$137.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$209.95
US$204.55
-2.6%
17.4%US$264.00US$114.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$187.83
US$188.61
+0.4%
15.9%US$256.00US$114.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$178.71
US$182.11
+1.9%
14.6%US$244.00US$114.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$159.28
US$167.58
+5.2%
13.0%US$225.00US$114.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$162.46
US$162.23
-0.1%
15.0%US$215.00US$112.00n/a17
Nov ’24US$159.61
US$158.99
-0.4%
14.5%US$199.00US$111.00US$242.7217
Oct ’24US$139.30
US$139.88
+0.4%
15.4%US$203.00US$109.00US$254.2717
Sep ’24US$135.48
US$137.29
+1.3%
17.5%US$208.00US$106.00US$252.2017
Aug ’24US$127.42
US$136.29
+7.0%
17.8%US$208.00US$106.00US$215.2817
Jul ’24US$132.37
US$144.18
+8.9%
14.7%US$206.00US$107.00US$209.4617
Jun ’24US$128.33
US$145.38
+13.3%
13.9%US$198.00US$107.00US$211.1816
May ’24US$135.89
US$145.76
+7.3%
13.2%US$188.00US$107.00US$211.8017
Apr ’24US$143.06
US$145.65
+1.8%
12.9%US$177.00US$107.00US$209.9517
Mar ’24US$142.23
US$140.71
-1.1%
14.7%US$174.00US$99.00US$187.8317
Feb ’24US$137.98
US$136.24
-1.3%
13.8%US$174.00US$99.00US$178.7117
Jan ’24US$129.71
US$125.67
-3.1%
16.1%US$169.00US$99.00US$159.2815
Dec ’23US$131.26
US$125.38
-4.5%
15.5%US$165.00US$99.00US$162.4616
Nov ’23US$129.02
US$120.94
-6.3%
15.2%US$150.00US$92.00US$159.6117

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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