Arch Capital Group Ltd.

NasdaqGS:ACGL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$35.8b

Arch Capital Group Valuation

Is ACGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ACGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$273.79
Fair Value
65.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ACGL ($95.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($273.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ACGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ACGL?

Key metric: As ACGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ACGL. This is calculated by dividing ACGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ACGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.3x
EarningsUS$5.67b
Market CapUS$35.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ACGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ACGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
HIG Hartford Financial Services Group
10.8x7.5%US$32.4b
MKL Markel Group
8x-11.7%US$22.8b
ALL Allstate
12.2x5.2%US$50.0b
WRB W. R. Berkley
14.4x5.7%US$22.7b
ACGL Arch Capital Group
6.3x-10.9%US$35.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ACGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2.1xn/aUS$93.81m
AIFU AIX
1.1xn/aUS$22.14m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.3xn/aUS$15.74m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
ACGL 6.3xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies17PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ACGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ACGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.3x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ACGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$95.51
US$118.40
+24.0%
10.0%US$141.00US$100.00n/a15
Jan ’26US$92.35
US$120.60
+30.6%
9.0%US$141.00US$104.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$100.72
US$121.07
+20.2%
8.6%US$141.00US$104.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$96.02
US$121.73
+26.8%
9.4%US$143.00US$98.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$113.51
US$115.63
+1.9%
7.6%US$138.00US$98.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$113.09
US$113.27
+0.2%
6.2%US$125.00US$98.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$97.10
US$111.87
+15.2%
6.3%US$120.00US$94.00n/a15
Jul ’25US$100.65
US$109.60
+8.9%
7.2%US$120.00US$94.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$102.63
US$108.20
+5.4%
6.3%US$120.00US$94.00n/a15
May ’25US$95.80
US$107.07
+11.8%
6.1%US$116.00US$94.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$92.31
US$99.87
+8.2%
7.7%US$116.00US$85.00n/a15
Mar ’25US$87.17
US$99.33
+14.0%
6.8%US$110.00US$85.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$82.09
US$93.19
+13.5%
7.6%US$103.00US$79.00n/a16
Jan ’25US$74.27
US$95.20
+28.2%
7.4%US$103.00US$79.00US$92.3515
Dec ’24US$82.63
US$96.33
+16.6%
7.4%US$105.00US$79.00US$100.7215
Nov ’24US$90.00
US$95.79
+6.4%
7.4%US$105.00US$79.00US$96.0214
Oct ’24US$79.71
US$89.69
+12.5%
6.9%US$100.00US$78.00US$113.5113
Sep ’24US$77.01
US$90.50
+17.5%
6.4%US$100.00US$78.00US$113.0912
Aug ’24US$77.10
US$90.75
+17.7%
6.4%US$100.00US$78.00US$97.1012
Jul ’24US$74.85
US$83.46
+11.5%
7.6%US$92.00US$67.00US$100.6512
Jun ’24US$69.67
US$82.68
+18.7%
7.3%US$90.00US$67.00US$102.6311
May ’24US$75.90
US$81.50
+7.4%
9.6%US$90.00US$65.00US$95.8011
Apr ’24US$67.87
US$75.27
+10.9%
8.5%US$86.00US$62.00US$92.3111
Mar ’24US$70.97
US$75.64
+6.6%
10.1%US$86.00US$58.00US$87.1711
Feb ’24US$64.18
US$69.09
+7.7%
6.5%US$75.00US$58.00US$82.0911
Jan ’24US$62.78
US$64.90
+3.4%
7.4%US$70.00US$55.00US$74.2710
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
US$118.40
Fair Value
19.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/20 10:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is covered by 32 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jay GelbBarclays
Alex ScottBarclays
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research