Markel Group Inc.

NYSE:MKL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$22.0b

Markel Group Valuation

Is MKL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MKL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MKL ($1707.64) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($2282.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MKL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MKL?

Key metric: As MKL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MKL. This is calculated by dividing MKL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MKL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.7x
EarningsUS$2.85b
Market CapUS$21.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MKL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MKL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.8x
ERIE Erie Indemnity
37.9x23.8%US$21.2b
CINF Cincinnati Financial
7.7x-39.3%US$23.4b
WRB W. R. Berkley
14.7x4.2%US$22.7b
L Loews
10.9xn/aUS$18.0b
MKL Markel Group
7.7x-14.8%US$22.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MKL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.68m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
MKL 7.7xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MKL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MKL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.7x
Fair PE Ratio10.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MKL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1,707.64
US$1,685.17
-1.3%
9.2%US$1,986.00US$1,500.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$1,545.00
US$1,685.17
+9.1%
9.2%US$1,986.00US$1,500.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$1,572.72
US$1,676.00
+6.6%
10.2%US$1,986.00US$1,430.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$1,600.68
US$1,642.29
+2.6%
10.9%US$1,986.00US$1,430.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$1,566.38
US$1,636.57
+4.5%
10.6%US$1,986.00US$1,430.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$1,575.34
US$1,571.67
-0.2%
7.1%US$1,750.00US$1,430.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$1,641.59
US$1,571.67
-4.3%
7.1%US$1,750.00US$1,430.00n/a6
May ’25US$1,476.34
US$1,471.67
-0.3%
5.5%US$1,600.00US$1,375.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$1,508.78
US$1,422.50
-5.7%
8.3%US$1,600.00US$1,250.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$1,493.76
US$1,414.17
-5.3%
7.5%US$1,550.00US$1,250.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$1,395.13
US$1,480.71
+6.1%
9.6%US$1,680.00US$1,300.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$1,419.90
US$1,460.00
+2.8%
9.3%US$1,650.00US$1,275.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$1,425.00
US$1,460.00
+2.5%
9.3%US$1,650.00US$1,275.00n/a7
Nov ’24US$1,492.68
US$1,593.33
+6.7%
8.7%US$1,750.00US$1,310.00US$1,545.006
Oct ’24US$1,472.49
US$1,593.33
+8.2%
8.7%US$1,750.00US$1,310.00US$1,572.726
Sep ’24US$1,490.06
US$1,562.00
+4.8%
8.4%US$1,650.00US$1,310.00US$1,600.685
Aug ’24US$1,435.10
US$1,477.50
+3.0%
8.9%US$1,650.00US$1,310.00US$1,566.384
Jul ’24US$1,383.18
US$1,465.00
+5.9%
7.9%US$1,600.00US$1,310.00US$1,575.344
Jun ’24US$1,331.18
US$1,465.00
+10.1%
7.9%US$1,600.00US$1,310.00US$1,641.594
May ’24US$1,374.88
US$1,450.00
+5.5%
9.4%US$1,600.00US$1,250.00US$1,476.344
Apr ’24US$1,277.41
US$1,468.75
+15.0%
10.4%US$1,625.00US$1,250.00US$1,508.784
Mar ’24US$1,327.69
US$1,468.75
+10.6%
10.4%US$1,625.00US$1,250.00US$1,493.764
Feb ’24US$1,401.15
US$1,425.00
+1.7%
10.7%US$1,600.00US$1,250.00US$1,395.134
Jan ’24US$1,317.49
US$1,425.00
+8.2%
10.7%US$1,600.00US$1,250.00US$1,419.904
Dec ’23US$1,344.60
US$1,383.33
+2.9%
11.2%US$1,600.00US$1,250.00US$1,425.003
Nov ’23US$1,207.07
US$1,367.67
+13.3%
12.4%US$1,600.00US$1,203.00US$1,492.683

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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