Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.51%Analysts cite persistent profit margin strength but growing caution around slowing growth prospects, increased competition, and sector headwinds—factors that offset upside potential and result in the consensus Analyst Price Target remaining unchanged at $283.56.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite Progressive's consistent outperformance on profit margins, with recent operating EPS beats exceeding expectations and normalized underwriting margin forecasts being revised slightly higher into 2027.
- Several target adjustments reflect a mixed industry backdrop, including indications that favorable property & casualty pricing is waning, leading to heightened competition and late-stage soft market conditions in personal lines over the next 12 months.
- Some bearish analysts have become more cautious due to limited prospects for additional earnings growth and margin expansion, as Progressive enters a margin normalization period, capping potential multiple re-rating.
- Target revisions incorporate recalibrated growth expectations—such as lowering policy-in-force projections and advertising spend due to recent misses in these metrics—despite continued attractive profit margins.
- Rotations in investor sentiment, sector performance, and capital markets dynamics (e.g., flows from non-bank financials into banks, and sector underperformance relative to S&P 500) have influenced both cautious and optimistic target changes.
What's in the News
- Repurchased 30,162 shares for $8.35 million, completing a buyback tranche under the May 2025 program.
- Repurchased 15,183 shares for $3.19 million, contributing to completion of 660,806 shares repurchased for $150.29 million under the May 2024 buyback program.
- Launched a marketing partnership with DC and Warner Bros. to promote Progressive's in-app Accident Response safety feature, including an activation at the Superman film premiere and new TV campaign.
- Progressive dropped from the Russell 1000 Dynamic Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Progressive
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $283.56.
- The Future P/E for Progressive remained effectively unchanged, at 21.36x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Progressive remained effectively unchanged, at 8.91%.
Disclaimer
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