Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.65%Progressive's analyst price target has been modestly lowered, declining by approximately $2 to around $257, as analysts cite recent fluctuations in policy growth and underlying profitability trends that support their revised outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary on Progressive reflects a dynamic outlook, with both bullish and bearish perspectives shaping the current consensus. The following sections summarize the key points raised by analysts regarding the company’s valuation, execution, and growth prospects.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are raising price targets in recognition of strong monthly policy growth. Several have noted major increases in net auto customer additions in recent months, signaling improved customer acquisition and underlying demand.
- There is optimism about the company's ability to outperform earnings expectations. Consensus EPS forecasts have steadily increased, yet analysts argue the market may still be underestimating Progressive’s earnings power for the next two years.
- Several analysts highlight Progressive’s solid margins on new business and better-than-expected investment income as factors supporting stable or modestly increased price targets.
- Margin normalization is anticipated to remain favorable for the company through 2025. This is attributed to underwriting discipline and a lighter mix of property renewals, which is seen as beneficial for pricing on commercial lines.
- Bearish analysts are lowering price targets due to recent signs of slowing policy growth and premium growth forecasts. This suggests that momentum may be tapering as competitive pressures increase.
- There is caution around one-time credits and industry events such as large policyholder credits in Florida. These factors have weighed on stock performance and introduce uncertainty about future profitability.
- Some analysts express concern over narrowing revenue revision trends and continued declines in growth for certain metrics. These issues could limit near-term upside for the shares.
- Competitive activity from peers and reduced rate-taking in the broader market are seen as headwinds that may pressure Progressive’s policy growth and market share in the future.
What's in the News
- Coterie Insurance's Businessowners Policies and General Liability products are now available through a new agency partnership with Progressive Insurance. This expands product offerings for small and mid-size businesses via Progressive's BusinessQuote Explorer platform. (Client Announcements)
- Progressive completed a share repurchase of 193,948 shares for $49.13 million as part of a buyback initiated in May 2025. (Buyback Tranche Update)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $259.13 to $257.44, reflecting a slightly more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate remains stable, with a negligible adjustment from 6.96% to 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth expectation has declined slightly from 6.71% to 6.58%.
- Net Profit Margin is up marginally, rising from 8.99% to 9.01%.
- Future P/E ratio estimate has decreased from 20.03x to 19.88x.
Disclaimer
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