Update shared on15 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.95%Progressive's analyst price target has decreased modestly, dropping by $5.42 to $272.74. Analysts point to slower revenue growth and profit margin pressures, partially offset by industry-wide improvements in catastrophe losses and continued earnings resilience.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street Research reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Progressive's valuation and execution heading into the next year. The following summarizes key themes from major analyst updates:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised price targets in response to Progressive's earnings outperformance, specifically citing strong operating results in recent months.
- There is recognition of robust underlying margins, with multiple research notes highlighting that the company's current business margins are at the highest level seen in years.
- Progressive continues to demonstrate resilience in earnings. Consensus EPS estimates are still being revised upward, suggesting the company's earnings power is underestimated by the market.
- Some analysts note positive momentum in net investment income and premium growth, pointing to better-than-expected performance even in a challenging industry backdrop.
- Bearish analysts have pointed out ongoing pressure on profit margins. They expect near-term headwinds from low earned rate increases and slowing policy growth.
- Forecasts for future premium growth have been revised down, reflecting concerns about intensified competition as more players expand their market presence.
- Recent downgrades cite the stock's limited upside potential. There are views that fundamental improvement is constrained and any re-rating of the stock may be delayed as earnings growth moderates.
- Some analysts have become less comfortable with the current declining revenue revision trendline and question whether Progressive can sustain prior growth trajectories in the coming quarters.
What's in the News
- Between April 1, 2025 and May 31, 2025, Progressive repurchased 15,183 shares for $3.19 million, completing a total of 660,806 shares bought back for $150.29 million under the buyback announced on May 14, 2024 (Key Developments).
- From May 9, 2025 to June 30, 2025, the company executed an additional repurchase of 30,162 shares for $8.35 million, completing this tranche under the buyback announced on May 13, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined modestly from $278.16 to $272.74.
- Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.78%.
- Revenue Growth projection has fallen from 8.16% to 7.35%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has decreased slightly from 9.14% to 8.86%.
- Future P/E ratio is effectively flat, moving from 20.86x to 20.91x.
Disclaimer
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