Further Upside For Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 27% Bounce

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 55% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, Heritage Insurance Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.6x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 34x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Heritage Insurance Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Heritage Insurance Holdings

Keen to find out how analysts think Heritage Insurance Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Heritage Insurance Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 76%. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 19% during the coming year according to the three analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 15% growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Heritage Insurance Holdings' P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Heritage Insurance Holdings' recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Heritage Insurance Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Heritage Insurance Holdings with six simple checks.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.