Fidelity National Financial, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (NYSE:FNF) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Unfortunately, Fidelity National Financial delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$2.7b were 18% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.30 missed estimates by 71%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Fidelity National Financial from three analysts is for revenues of US$13.8b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 21% to US$4.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$14.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.76 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Fidelity National Financial

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$71.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fidelity National Financial at US$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$67.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Fidelity National Financial is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Fidelity National Financial's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Fidelity National Financial to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$71.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fidelity National Financial analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Fidelity National Financial Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.