Aflac Incorporated

NYSE:AFL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$57.0b

Aflac Valuation

Is AFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFL ($102.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($153.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFL?

Key metric: As AFL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFL. This is calculated by dividing AFL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15x
EarningsUS$3.81b
Market CapUS$57.05b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.7x
MET MetLife
15.8x14.0%US$56.3b
PRU Prudential Financial
10.3x7.3%US$41.9b
UNM Unum Group
7.5x-3.9%US$13.1b
PRI Primerica
13.1x6.1%US$9.1b
AFL Aflac
15x-3.8%US$57.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
1.9xn/aUS$88.57m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.44m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
AFL 15.0xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15x
Fair PE Ratio12.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$102.69
US$105.77
+3.0%
9.0%US$123.00US$90.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$114.00
US$105.46
-7.5%
8.8%US$124.00US$90.00n/a13
Nov ’25US$104.71
US$103.77
-0.9%
9.8%US$124.00US$90.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$112.82
US$98.23
-12.9%
9.0%US$115.00US$85.00n/a13
Sep ’25US$110.36
US$96.58
-12.5%
9.6%US$114.00US$84.00n/a12
Aug ’25US$101.65
US$92.08
-9.4%
10.8%US$114.00US$81.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$89.06
US$86.08
-3.3%
7.6%US$100.00US$77.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$89.87
US$85.25
-5.1%
6.1%US$95.00US$77.00n/a12
May ’25US$84.57
US$84.54
-0.04%
7.8%US$100.00US$75.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$85.19
US$83.00
-2.6%
5.6%US$92.00US$75.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$80.43
US$83.00
+3.2%
5.6%US$92.00US$75.00n/a13
Feb ’25US$76.20
US$82.86
+8.7%
6.2%US$92.00US$75.00n/a14
Jan ’25US$82.50
US$79.50
-3.6%
7.9%US$90.00US$61.00n/a14
Dec ’24US$82.61
US$79.78
-3.4%
7.7%US$90.00US$61.00US$114.0014
Nov ’24US$79.05
US$77.49
-2.0%
8.3%US$86.00US$60.00US$104.7114
Oct ’24US$76.75
US$76.49
-0.3%
9.2%US$86.00US$58.00US$112.8214
Sep ’24US$74.77
US$75.78
+1.3%
9.2%US$86.00US$58.00US$110.3614
Aug ’24US$72.11
US$72.09
-0.02%
7.6%US$80.00US$58.00US$101.6514
Jul ’24US$69.80
US$71.23
+2.0%
7.7%US$80.00US$57.00US$89.0613
Jun ’24US$64.69
US$70.77
+9.4%
7.4%US$80.00US$57.00US$89.8713
May ’24US$70.36
US$70.64
+0.4%
7.1%US$80.00US$57.00US$84.5714
Apr ’24US$64.52
US$70.77
+9.7%
8.2%US$80.00US$57.00US$85.1913
Mar ’24US$68.12
US$71.15
+4.5%
7.8%US$80.00US$57.00US$80.4313
Feb ’24US$73.28
US$70.46
-3.8%
8.2%US$80.00US$57.00US$76.2013
Jan ’24US$71.94
US$67.77
-5.8%
9.4%US$80.00US$54.00US$82.5013
Dec ’23US$71.91
US$67.77
-5.8%
9.4%US$80.00US$54.00US$82.6113

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 09:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aflac Incorporated is covered by 32 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Jay GelbBarclays
Alex ScottBarclays