Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Yatsen Holding Limited (NYSE:YSG) After Its Annual Report

It's been a sad week for Yatsen Holding Limited (NYSE:YSG), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$15.71 in the week since the company reported its annual result. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 558% toCN¥19.12 per share. Revenues of CN¥5.2b did beat expectations by 2.5%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Yatsen Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yatsen Holding's four analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.64b in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 84% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 94% to CN¥1.15. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥9.60b and CN¥1.23 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CN¥137, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Yatsen Holding analyst has a price target of CN¥23.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥16.80. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2021 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 84% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 72% annual growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that Yatsen Holding is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yatsen Holding going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Yatsen Holding that you need to be mindful of.

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