Align Technology (ALGN): Revisiting Valuation After Thailand Launch of New Invisalign Mandibular Advancement System

Align Technology (ALGN) just rolled out its Invisalign System with mandibular advancement and occlusal blocks in Thailand, and that quiet product launch is exactly what has been nudging the stock higher.

See our latest analysis for Align Technology.

Those incremental product wins are starting to show up in the tape, with a 30 day share price return of 19.06 percent and a 90 day gain of 21.09 percent, even though the year to date share price return and one year total shareholder return are both still negative. This suggests that momentum is rebuilding from a beaten down base.

If this kind of innovation has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other healthcare names using our screener for healthcare stocks to spot your next idea.

But with shares still down sharply over one and five years, yet trading only modestly below analyst targets, is Align now a mispriced growth story in early recovery, or is the market already discounting the next leg of innovation-driven upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.6% Undervalued

With Align closing at $164.58 versus a widely followed fair value near $184, the leading narrative frames today’s price as lagging improving fundamentals.

The continued expansion of clinical indications for Invisalign (such as Invisalign First for teens/kids and palate expanders) and the increasing adoption by general practitioner dentists are broadening Align's addressable market, positioning the company for higher long term revenues and double digit earnings growth as these new segments mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady revenue growth, rising margins, and a tighter share count can still point to potential upside from here? The narrative’s math may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $184.07 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent macro uncertainty and a shift toward lower priced aligners and traditional braces could pressure volumes and margins, which may challenge this recovery narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Align Technology narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, Align looks anything but cheap. The shares trade on a price to earnings ratio of 31.2 times, above both the US Medical Equipment industry at 29.5 times and the peer average at 29.6 times, and even above its own 30.7 times fair ratio.

That premium suggests the market is already paying up for a cleaner growth story. This raises a simple question: how much execution risk are investors really being compensated for at this price?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Align Technology Narrative

If the conclusions here do not quite match your own view, dive into the numbers yourself and craft a fresh perspective in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Align Technology.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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