Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Molson Coors Beverage Company's (NYSE:TAP) Annual Report

It's been a pretty great week for Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$60.36 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$12b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Molson Coors Beverage surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$5.35 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Molson Coors Beverage

Taking into account the latest results, Molson Coors Beverage's 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$11.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.6% to US$5.94. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.72 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$65.12, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Molson Coors Beverage analyst has a price target of US$79.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Molson Coors Beverage's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Molson Coors Beverage.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Molson Coors Beverage's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Molson Coors Beverage's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Molson Coors Beverage analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Molson Coors Beverage (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.