Investors Aren't Buying Valero Energy Corporation's (NYSE:VLO) Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.2x Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 34x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Valero Energy has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

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How Is Valero Energy's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Valero Energy's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 39%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 13% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10% per year, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that Valero Energy is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Valero Energy's P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Valero Energy's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Valero Energy (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Valero Energy, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.