U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SLCA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 9.2% to US$11.66. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, U.S. Silica Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.87 per share, a notable 10% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for U.S. Silica Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering U.S. Silica Holdings, is for revenues of US$1.42b in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 8.7% reduction in U.S. Silica Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 44% to US$1.05 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.40 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$15.17, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.7% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.5% per year. It's pretty clear that U.S. Silica Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for U.S. Silica Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on U.S. Silica Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for U.S. Silica Holdings (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.