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- NYSE:OXY
Are Investors Undervaluing Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) By 43%?
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Occidental Petroleum is US$88.06 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Occidental Petroleum is estimated to be 43% undervalued based on current share price of US$50.11
- The US$64.22 analyst price target for OXY is 27% less than our estimate of fair value
Does the November share price for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Occidental Petroleum
The Model
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$4.71b | US$5.62b | US$5.23b | US$5.08b | US$5.02b | US$5.02b | US$5.06b | US$5.12b | US$5.20b | US$5.30b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -1.11% | Est @ -0.03% | Est @ 0.73% | Est @ 1.26% | Est @ 1.63% | Est @ 1.89% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% | US$4.4k | US$4.8k | US$4.2k | US$3.8k | US$3.4k | US$3.2k | US$3.0k | US$2.8k | US$2.6k | US$2.5k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$35b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$5.3b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.9%– 2.5%) = US$102b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$102b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= US$48b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$82b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$50.1, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Occidental Petroleum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.299. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Occidental Petroleum
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Occidental Petroleum, we've compiled three additional aspects you should look at:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Occidental Petroleum you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does OXY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:OXY
Occidental Petroleum
Engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.