Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) After Its Full-Year Report

The yearly results for Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Matador Resources reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$3.5b and statutory earnings per share of US$7.14, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Matador Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Matador Resources' 13 analysts is for revenues of US$4.20b in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to US$8.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$77.29, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Matador Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$90.00 and the most bearish at US$62.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Matador Resources shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Matador Resources' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Matador Resources' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$77.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Matador Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Matador Resources analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Matador Resources that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.