Matador Resources Company

NYSE:MTDR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.6b

Matador Resources Valuation

Is MTDR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTDR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTDR ($53.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($151.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTDR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTDR?

Key metric: As MTDR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MTDR. This is calculated by dividing MTDR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MTDR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.2x
EarningsUS$925.33m
Market CapUS$6.56b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTDR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTDR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.8x
VNOM Viper Energy
23.8x0.4%US$9.0b
CHRD Chord Energy
7.2x0.6%US$6.7b
APA APA
3.5x-7.6%US$7.6b
MUR Murphy Oil
8.7x10.8%US$4.1b
MTDR Matador Resources
7.2x6.0%US$6.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTDR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTDR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MTDR 7.2xIndustry Avg. 10.7xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTDR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTDR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTDR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio11.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTDR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTDR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$53.07
US$74.60
+40.6%
8.3%US$87.00US$62.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$60.01
US$74.33
+23.9%
7.9%US$87.00US$62.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$51.59
US$74.27
+44.0%
7.6%US$87.00US$62.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$50.49
US$76.40
+51.3%
7.4%US$87.00US$62.00n/a15
Sep ’25US$56.72
US$80.40
+41.7%
9.4%US$94.00US$62.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$59.14
US$80.40
+35.9%
8.7%US$90.00US$62.00n/a15
Jul ’25US$59.68
US$79.60
+33.4%
9.0%US$91.00US$62.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$63.45
US$78.07
+23.0%
9.3%US$90.00US$62.00n/a14
May ’25US$61.08
US$77.65
+27.1%
8.9%US$90.00US$62.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$67.48
US$73.14
+8.4%
7.6%US$84.00US$62.00n/a14
Mar ’25US$64.44
US$70.50
+9.4%
9.0%US$84.00US$62.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$54.07
US$70.79
+30.9%
8.6%US$84.00US$62.00n/a14
Jan ’25US$56.86
US$75.21
+32.3%
6.2%US$83.00US$65.00n/a14
Dec ’24US$58.12
US$76.14
+31.0%
6.3%US$87.00US$70.00US$60.0114
Nov ’24US$60.91
US$76.62
+25.8%
6.1%US$87.00US$70.00US$51.5913
Oct ’24US$59.48
US$72.62
+22.1%
9.3%US$87.00US$62.00US$50.4913
Sep ’24US$64.54
US$71.77
+11.2%
10.0%US$87.00US$62.00US$56.7213
Aug ’24US$56.25
US$69.54
+23.6%
8.9%US$81.00US$62.00US$59.1413
Jul ’24US$52.32
US$69.31
+32.5%
9.2%US$81.00US$60.00US$59.6813
Jun ’24US$45.02
US$69.77
+55.0%
8.8%US$81.00US$60.00US$63.4513
May ’24US$48.51
US$70.54
+45.4%
8.2%US$81.00US$61.00US$61.0813
Apr ’24US$47.65
US$71.62
+50.3%
7.8%US$81.00US$65.00US$67.4813
Mar ’24US$55.35
US$73.23
+32.3%
10.2%US$94.00US$65.00US$64.4413
Feb ’24US$64.38
US$74.38
+15.5%
8.0%US$90.00US$67.00US$54.0713
Jan ’24US$57.24
US$72.75
+27.1%
11.0%US$90.00US$57.00US$56.8612
Dec ’23US$65.66
US$74.67
+13.7%
13.9%US$96.00US$57.00US$58.1212

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 22:46
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Matador Resources Company is covered by 48 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Subhasish ChandraBenchmark Company