SM Energy Company

NYSE:SM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.2b

SM Energy Valuation

Is SM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of SM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: SM ($21.68) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($154.11)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: SM is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM?

Key metric: As SM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SM. This is calculated by dividing SM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.2x
EarningsUS$727.30m
Market CapUS$5.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.6x
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
14.7x10.96%US$5.0b
CRC California Resources
12.3x-26.67%US$4.8b
MTDR Matador Resources
7.5x7.39%US$5.9b
MUR Murphy Oil
44x30.36%US$4.8b
SM SM Energy
7.2x21.36%US$5.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (19.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TGA TransGlobe Energy
2.2xn/aUS$272.31m
SAFX XCF Global
0.4xn/aUS$41.81m
TOPS Top Ships
2xn/aUS$22.85m
MVO MV Oil Trust
1.4xn/aUS$16.79m
SM 7.2xIndustry Avg. 14.5xNo. of Companies21PE01020304050+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio19.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$21.68
US$30.75
+41.84%
30.13%US$48.00US$19.00n/a12
Feb ’27US$19.47
US$30.75
+57.94%
30.13%US$48.00US$19.00n/a12
Jan ’27US$18.70
US$32.42
+73.35%
28.09%US$48.00US$20.00n/a12
Dec ’26US$19.70
US$33.92
+72.17%
26.68%US$48.00US$20.00n/a12
Nov ’26US$20.89
US$37.54
+79.70%
23.80%US$57.00US$23.00n/a13
Oct ’26US$25.44
US$39.46
+55.12%
20.70%US$59.00US$27.00n/a13
Sep ’26US$28.55
US$40.00
+40.11%
20.45%US$59.00US$27.00n/a13
Aug ’26US$26.66
US$39.77
+49.17%
20.83%US$59.00US$27.00n/a13
Jul ’26US$26.04
US$39.69
+52.43%
23.52%US$62.00US$24.00n/a13
Jun ’26US$23.42
US$38.64
+65.00%
19.72%US$55.00US$24.00n/a14
May ’26US$23.67
US$39.43
+66.58%
22.68%US$58.00US$24.00n/a14
Apr ’26US$29.77
US$47.67
+60.12%
19.37%US$66.00US$33.00n/a15
Mar ’26US$32.71
US$52.27
+59.79%
13.89%US$65.00US$39.00n/a15
Feb ’26US$37.96
US$53.47
+40.85%
12.68%US$65.00US$45.00US$19.4715
Jan ’26US$38.76
US$53.07
+36.91%
12.49%US$65.00US$42.00US$18.7015
Dec ’25US$45.19
US$53.27
+17.87%
11.82%US$65.00US$42.00US$19.7015
Nov ’25US$40.28
US$53.33
+32.41%
11.24%US$62.00US$42.00US$20.8915
Oct ’25US$41.33
US$54.80
+32.59%
14.25%US$66.00US$38.00US$25.4415
Sep ’25US$45.63
US$58.25
+27.66%
14.28%US$76.00US$46.00US$28.5516
Aug ’25US$44.13
US$58.13
+31.71%
14.29%US$76.00US$46.00US$26.6616
Jul ’25US$43.66
US$58.06
+32.99%
13.07%US$76.00US$48.00US$26.0416
Jun ’25US$50.43
US$58.93
+16.85%
12.04%US$76.00US$51.00US$23.4214
May ’25US$47.12
US$57.93
+22.94%
12.84%US$76.00US$50.00US$23.6714
Apr ’25US$50.58
US$50.36
-0.44%
9.60%US$60.00US$42.00US$29.7714
Mar ’25US$44.50
US$46.29
+4.01%
10.94%US$58.00US$39.00US$32.7114
Feb ’25US$36.53
US$45.79
+25.34%
11.65%US$58.00US$38.00US$37.9614
US$30.75
Fair Value
29.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/17 17:07
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/17 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

SM Energy Company is covered by 47 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph AllmanBaird
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Rudolf HokansonBarrington Research Associates, Inc.