SM Energy Company

NYSE:SM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.8b

SM Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

SM Energy is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 56.4% and 25.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 44.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 17.4% in 3 years.

Key information

56.4%

Earnings growth rate

44.33%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.7%
Revenue growth rate25.2%
Future return on equity17.41%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 03

SM: Future Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Share Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy from $22.00 to $29.00, citing revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E as the key drivers of this change. What's in the News BofA Securities, Inc.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 29

SM Energy: Strong Buying Trends Since February Merger Should Continue

Summary SM Energy Company is positioned for a significant valuation re-rating driven by ongoing debt reduction and high oil/gas pricing. Deleveraging efforts are central to the investment thesis, with improved balance sheet strength expected to unlock shareholder value. Underappreciated natural gas production/reserves and a forecast of even higher crude oil quotes into the second half of the year are pluses. Robust share-buying momentum in early 2026 could be signaling a new multi-year bull market in SM has begun. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 18

SM: Civitas Merger And New CEO Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target for SM Energy slightly higher, to approximately $55.27 from about $55.01, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Apr 04

SM: Civitas Merger And New CEO Will Shape Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on SM Energy from $48.00 to about $55.01, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News SM Energy completed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources, creating a combined oil and gas producer operating in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin.
Narrative Update • Mar 21

SM: Post Merger Profit Margin Assumptions Will Pressure Future Share Performance

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for SM Energy from $19.00 to $22.00, citing updated assumptions for profit margin, discount rate, revenue growth, and future P/E as key drivers of the new price target. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Mar 07

SM: Merger Integration And Production Outlook Will Shape Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy to $28.82 from $31.42, citing updated assumptions that reflect a lower discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News SM Energy completed its merger with Civitas Resources in a transaction valued at $12.8b, with the combined company operating oil and natural gas assets in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin, and continuing to trade on the NYSE under the SM ticker (Executive Changes: CEO).
Narrative Update • Feb 21

SM: Merger Synergies And Margin Pressure Will Constrain Future Share Performance

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy from $27.00 to $19.00, reflecting updated views on the company’s growth outlook, margin profile, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News SM Energy closed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

SM: Civitas Merger And New Leadership Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy to reflect an unchanged fair value estimate of $48.00, together with updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that indicate a different mix of risk and earnings than before. What's in the News SM Energy completed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources on January 30, 2026, creating a combined oil and gas producer operating in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 23

SM: Production Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target for SM Energy by about $1 to reflect updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News SM Energy has scheduled a special or extraordinary shareholders meeting for January 27, 2026, which could bring proposals that affect capital structure, governance, or other corporate matters (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 09

SM: Share Repurchases And Production Guidance Will Support Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy from about US$33.50 to roughly US$32.33, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as the key drivers of the change. What's in the News SM Energy has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for January 27, 2026, giving investors a key date to watch for company level decisions (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 24

SM: Merger Talks And 2025 Production Outlook Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy to approximately $48.00 from about $56.36. This reflects a view that sharply higher projected revenue growth is likely to be offset by expectations for lower profit margins and a more conservative valuation multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 10

SM: Merger Talks And Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on SM Energy from 33.92 dollars to 33.50 dollars. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, even as valuation multiples edge higher.
Narrative Update • Nov 26

SM: Merger Prospects and Leadership Transition Will Unlock Shareholder Value

Analysts have revised their price target for SM Energy, lowering it from $36.64 to $33.92. This change is based on updated forecasts for revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Nov 12

SM: Planned Merger and Leadership Transition Will Drive Future Performance

Analysts have lowered their price target for SM Energy from $37.54 to $36.64, citing reduced projections for revenue growth even though profit margins remain stable. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Analysis Article • Nov 10

SM Energy's (NYSE:SM) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture

Investors were disappointed by SM Energy Company's ( NYSE:SM ) latest earnings release. We did some further digging and...
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Merger Prospects And Rising Oil Output Will Drive Future Gains

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for SM Energy from $38.62 to $37.54. They cite more cautious estimates for revenue growth and profit margins as the reason for the adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Uinta Basin Production Will Rise Despite Operational Hurdles

Narrative Update: SM Energy Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have revised SM Energy’s fair value estimate downward from $40.00 to $38.62 per share. This adjustment is due to more conservative revenue growth assumptions, which are partially offset by improved profit margin projections and a lower future price-to-earnings ratio.
Analysis Article • May 15

Shareholders May Not Be So Generous With SM Energy Company's (NYSE:SM) CEO Compensation And Here's Why

Key Insights SM Energy's Annual General Meeting to take place on 22nd of May CEO Herb Vogel's total compensation...
Analysis Article • May 10

SM Energy's (NYSE:SM) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

SM Energy Company's ( NYSE:SM ) stock didn't jump after it announced some healthy earnings. We did some digging and...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 07

SM Energy: Exploring The Factors Behind The Recent -20% Fall

Summary SM Energy's recent -22% sell-off is driven by a sharp decline in crude oil prices and macroeconomic headwinds, including OPEC's production increase and potential global recession. SM Energy's higher leverage ratio of 1.4x, compared to peers, makes it vulnerable in a declining oil price environment, despite plans to reduce debt. The company's decreased hedge ratio exposes it to lower oil prices, impacting profitability, with significant unhedged exposure from 2026 onwards. Expect a short-term rebound in SM equity from oversold conditions, but sustained low oil prices could push the stock to the mid-teens. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 22

SM Energy: A Look At Its Outlook For 2025

Summary SM Energy's Q4 2024 production results were within expectations, although a bit towards the lower end. Production would have been around the midpoint of expectations without Uinta Basin third-party crude takeaway issues. SM is projected to generate $883 million in free cash flow at 2025 strip prices. This would bring its leverage down to 0.8x by the end of 2025 without share repurchases. SM does have room for several hundred million in share repurchases, while also hitting its 1.0x leverage target. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,3901,6441,7204,2544
12/31/20277,4281,7391,7764,39110
12/31/20266,5971,0891,6124,1223
3/31/20263,6611315552,168N/A
12/31/20253,0276485392,011N/A
9/30/20253,167727-1,5632,137N/A
6/30/20253,003813-1,5142,084N/A
3/31/20252,847821-1,5211,989N/A
12/31/20242,574770-1,6321,783N/A
9/30/20242,3378295001,681N/A
6/30/20242,3648114961,612N/A
3/31/20242,2537513281,519N/A
12/31/20232,2698184751,574N/A
9/30/20232,3278292221,386N/A
6/30/20232,5221,0883641,517N/A
3/31/20232,9501,2627051,676N/A
12/31/20223,1961,1128061,686N/A
9/30/20223,3711,2781,1111,828N/A
6/30/20223,2968839721,642N/A
3/31/20222,8723367191,396N/A
12/31/20212,502364821,160N/A
9/30/20211,995-554308987N/A
6/30/20211,516-738245860N/A
3/31/20211,145-604115678N/A
12/31/20201,081-765243791N/A
9/30/20201,205-701114776N/A
6/30/20201,299-56117778N/A
3/31/20201,532-4217923N/A
12/31/20191,525-187N/A824N/A
9/30/20191,471225N/A761N/A
6/30/20191,53747N/A788N/A
3/31/20191,53313N/A699N/A
12/31/20181,573508N/A721N/A
9/30/20181,519172N/A686N/A
6/30/20181,365219N/A585N/A
3/31/20181,25482N/A521N/A
12/31/20171,208-161N/A515N/A
9/30/20171,214-336N/A508N/A
6/30/20171,245-287N/A538N/A
3/31/20171,246-336N/A570N/A
12/31/20161,128-758N/A553N/A
9/30/20161,081-897N/A609N/A
6/30/20161,119-853N/A686N/A
3/31/20161,262-742N/A813N/A
12/31/20151,442-448N/A991N/A
9/30/20151,753224N/A1,166N/A
6/30/20152,024430N/A1,291N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SM's forecast earnings growth (56.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SM's earnings (56.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SM's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SM's revenue (25.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SM's revenue (25.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 05:46
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

SM Energy Company is covered by 41 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph AllmanBaird
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Rudolf HokansonBarrington Research Associates, Inc.