SM Energy's (NYSE:SM) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture

Investors were disappointed by SM Energy Company's (NYSE:SM ) latest earnings release. We did some further digging and think they have a few more reasons to be concerned beyond the statutory profit.

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Zooming In On SM Energy's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to September 2025, SM Energy recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of US$1.6b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of US$727.3m. It's worth noting that SM Energy generated positive FCF of US$500m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On SM Energy's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think SM Energy's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that SM Energy's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Be aware that SM Energy is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of SM Energy's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.