Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

NYSE:MGY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.3b

Magnolia Oil & Gas Valuation

Is MGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGY ($26.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($41.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MGY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.6x
PEG Ratio1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MGY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
MUR Murphy Oil
11.2x10.7%US$6.3b
SM SM Energy
6.9x11.4%US$5.2b
CRC California Resources
18.2x32.0%US$4.6b
DEN Denbury
9.5x-18.5%US$4.6b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
12.8x12.1%US$5.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.8x
Fair PE Ratio13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MGY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$26.28
US$28.26
+7.5%
12.4%US$35.00US$22.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$25.46
US$28.26
+11.0%
12.5%US$35.00US$22.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$25.95
US$28.28
+9.0%
13.0%US$35.00US$22.00n/a13
May ’25US$24.59
US$27.92
+13.6%
12.5%US$35.00US$22.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$26.19
US$25.92
-1.0%
14.9%US$33.00US$18.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$23.00
US$24.65
+7.2%
14.8%US$33.00US$18.00n/a13
Feb ’25US$20.42
US$24.79
+21.4%
15.4%US$32.00US$18.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$21.29
US$25.54
+20.0%
14.1%US$31.00US$18.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$21.90
US$26.92
+22.9%
11.7%US$32.00US$22.00n/a13
Nov ’24US$22.29
US$26.75
+20.0%
9.0%US$30.00US$23.00n/a12
Oct ’24US$22.91
US$27.00
+17.9%
9.2%US$32.00US$24.00n/a12
Sep ’24US$23.33
US$26.00
+11.4%
8.7%US$30.00US$22.00n/a12
Aug ’24US$22.19
US$26.08
+17.5%
10.9%US$30.00US$21.00n/a13
Jul ’24US$20.90
US$27.23
+30.3%
10.4%US$33.00US$22.00US$25.4613
Jun ’24US$19.20
US$27.81
+44.8%
10.9%US$33.00US$22.00US$25.9513
May ’24US$20.97
US$28.61
+36.4%
10.7%US$36.00US$25.00US$24.5914
Apr ’24US$21.88
US$28.42
+29.9%
8.5%US$35.00US$25.00US$26.1913
Mar ’24US$22.36
US$29.08
+30.0%
10.0%US$37.00US$25.00US$23.0013
Feb ’24US$23.01
US$28.85
+25.4%
9.6%US$35.00US$25.00US$20.4213
Jan ’24US$23.45
US$29.50
+25.8%
9.1%US$36.00US$25.00US$21.2912
Dec ’23US$25.63
US$30.75
+20.0%
12.2%US$39.00US$25.00US$21.9012
Nov ’23US$25.56
US$29.67
+16.1%
10.8%US$37.00US$25.00US$22.2912
Oct ’23US$19.81
US$29.83
+50.6%
13.0%US$39.00US$25.00US$22.9112
Sep ’23US$22.52
US$29.64
+31.6%
13.7%US$39.00US$25.00US$23.3311
Aug ’23US$23.70
US$29.82
+25.8%
14.9%US$39.00US$25.00US$22.1911
Jul ’23US$21.05
US$30.09
+42.9%
11.9%US$37.00US$25.00US$20.9011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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