Magnolia Oil & Gas Valuation
Is MGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MGY ($28.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($49.46)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MGY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGY?
Key metric: As MGY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is MGY's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 14.4x |
| Earnings | US$374.20m |
| Market Cap | US$5.45b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 4.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 5.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does MGY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 7.6x | ||
CRC California Resources | 10.3x | -13.4% | US$5.3b |
MUR Murphy Oil | 10.2x | 12.9% | US$4.8b |
SM SM Energy | 6.3x | 5.2% | US$5.1b |
APA APA | 3.7x | -9.1% | US$8.2b |
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas | 14.4x | 3.6% | US$5.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (7.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MGY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MGY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 14.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 10.7x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$28.23 | US$27.53 -2.5% | 11.7% | US$33.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | US$25.00 | US$27.33 +9.3% | 11.5% | US$33.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Oct ’25 | US$24.85 | US$27.20 +9.5% | 11.0% | US$32.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Sep ’25 | US$25.61 | US$28.80 +12.5% | 12.3% | US$35.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Aug ’25 | US$25.54 | US$29.07 +13.8% | 12.2% | US$35.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jul ’25 | US$25.46 | US$28.26 +11.0% | 12.5% | US$35.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | US$25.95 | US$28.28 +9.0% | 13.0% | US$35.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 13 |
| May ’25 | US$24.59 | US$27.92 +13.6% | 12.5% | US$35.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Apr ’25 | US$26.19 | US$25.92 -1.0% | 14.9% | US$33.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Mar ’25 | US$23.00 | US$24.65 +7.2% | 14.8% | US$33.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Feb ’25 | US$20.42 | US$24.79 +21.4% | 15.4% | US$32.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’25 | US$21.29 | US$25.54 +20.0% | 14.1% | US$31.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 12 |
| Dec ’24 | US$21.90 | US$26.92 +22.9% | 11.7% | US$32.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Nov ’24 | US$22.29 | US$26.75 +20.0% | 9.0% | US$30.00 | US$23.00 | US$25.00 | 12 |
| Oct ’24 | US$22.91 | US$27.00 +17.9% | 9.2% | US$32.00 | US$24.00 | US$24.85 | 12 |
| Sep ’24 | US$23.33 | US$26.00 +11.4% | 8.7% | US$30.00 | US$22.00 | US$25.61 | 12 |
| Aug ’24 | US$22.19 | US$26.08 +17.5% | 10.9% | US$30.00 | US$21.00 | US$25.54 | 13 |
| Jul ’24 | US$20.90 | US$27.23 +30.3% | 10.4% | US$33.00 | US$22.00 | US$25.46 | 13 |
| Jun ’24 | US$19.20 | US$27.81 +44.8% | 10.9% | US$33.00 | US$22.00 | US$25.95 | 13 |
| May ’24 | US$20.97 | US$28.61 +36.4% | 10.7% | US$36.00 | US$25.00 | US$24.59 | 14 |
| Apr ’24 | US$21.88 | US$28.42 +29.9% | 8.5% | US$35.00 | US$25.00 | US$26.19 | 13 |
| Mar ’24 | US$22.36 | US$29.08 +30.0% | 10.0% | US$37.00 | US$25.00 | US$23.00 | 13 |
| Feb ’24 | US$23.01 | US$28.85 +25.4% | 9.6% | US$35.00 | US$25.00 | US$20.42 | 13 |
| Jan ’24 | US$23.45 | US$29.50 +25.8% | 9.1% | US$36.00 | US$25.00 | US$21.29 | 12 |
| Dec ’23 | US$25.63 | US$30.75 +20.0% | 12.2% | US$39.00 | US$25.00 | US$21.90 | 12 |
| Nov ’23 | US$25.56 | US$29.67 +16.1% | 10.8% | US$37.00 | US$25.00 | US$22.29 | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
Civitas Resources
US$4.9b
An exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region, primarily in the Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado.
CIVI
US$51.60
7D
0.9%
1Y
-24.7%
Cenovus Energy
CA$41.0b
Develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada and internationally.
CVE
CA$16.16
7D
3.7%
1Y
-7.8%
ProPetro Holding
US$799.8m
Operates as an integrated oilfield services company.
PUMP
US$7.81
7D
-0.6%
1Y
-14.9%