Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

NYSE:MGY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.5b

Magnolia Oil & Gas Valuation

Is MGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGY ($22.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($50.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGY?

Key metric: As MGY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MGY. This is calculated by dividing MGY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MGY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.7x
EarningsUS$374.20m
Market CapUS$4.50b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MGY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8x
CRC California Resources
8.7x-10.5%US$4.6b
MUR Murphy Oil
8.7x10.8%US$4.1b
SM SM Energy
5x3.9%US$4.2b
DEN Denbury
9.5x-18.5%US$4.6b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
11.7x3.0%US$4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the peer average (6.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MGY 11.7xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.7x
Fair PE Ratio10.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MGY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$22.89
US$27.73
+21.2%
12.1%US$33.00US$22.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$27.74
US$27.73
-0.02%
12.2%US$33.00US$22.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$25.00
US$27.33
+9.3%
11.5%US$33.00US$22.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$24.85
US$27.20
+9.5%
11.0%US$32.00US$22.00n/a15
Sep ’25US$25.61
US$28.80
+12.5%
12.3%US$35.00US$22.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$25.54
US$29.07
+13.8%
12.2%US$35.00US$22.00n/a15
Jul ’25US$25.46
US$28.26
+11.0%
12.5%US$35.00US$22.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$25.95
US$28.28
+9.0%
13.0%US$35.00US$22.00n/a13
May ’25US$24.59
US$27.92
+13.6%
12.5%US$35.00US$22.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$26.19
US$25.92
-1.0%
14.9%US$33.00US$18.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$23.00
US$24.65
+7.2%
14.8%US$33.00US$18.00n/a13
Feb ’25US$20.42
US$24.79
+21.4%
15.4%US$32.00US$18.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$21.29
US$25.54
+20.0%
14.1%US$31.00US$18.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$21.90
US$26.92
+22.9%
11.7%US$32.00US$22.00US$27.7413
Nov ’24US$22.29
US$26.75
+20.0%
9.0%US$30.00US$23.00US$25.0012
Oct ’24US$22.91
US$27.00
+17.9%
9.2%US$32.00US$24.00US$24.8512
Sep ’24US$23.33
US$26.00
+11.4%
8.7%US$30.00US$22.00US$25.6112
Aug ’24US$22.19
US$26.08
+17.5%
10.9%US$30.00US$21.00US$25.5413
Jul ’24US$20.90
US$27.23
+30.3%
10.4%US$33.00US$22.00US$25.4613
Jun ’24US$19.20
US$27.81
+44.8%
10.9%US$33.00US$22.00US$25.9513
May ’24US$20.97
US$28.61
+36.4%
10.7%US$36.00US$25.00US$24.5914
Apr ’24US$21.88
US$28.42
+29.9%
8.5%US$35.00US$25.00US$26.1913
Mar ’24US$22.36
US$29.08
+30.0%
10.0%US$37.00US$25.00US$23.0013
Feb ’24US$23.01
US$28.85
+25.4%
9.6%US$35.00US$25.00US$20.4213
Jan ’24US$23.45
US$29.50
+25.8%
9.1%US$36.00US$25.00US$21.2912
Dec ’23US$25.63
US$30.75
+20.0%
12.2%US$39.00US$25.00US$21.9012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 04:02
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is covered by 28 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Subhasish ChandraBenchmark Company
Noah HungnessBofA Global Research
John Phillips JohnstonCapital One Securities, Inc.