Murphy Oil Valuation

Is MUR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MUR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MUR ($45.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($120.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MUR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MUR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MUR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.4x
PEG Ratio2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MUR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MUR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.6x
RRC Range Resources
9.7x-2.7%US$8.3b
SM SM Energy
7.1x1.1%US$5.7b
VNOM Viper Energy
17.3x-11.8%US$6.7b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
12.3x9.0%US$5.2b
MUR Murphy Oil
10.5x4.7%US$6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MUR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the peer average (11.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MUR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (9.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MUR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MUR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.5x
Fair PE Ratio10.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MUR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MUR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$45.70
US$48.50
+6.1%
12.8%US$60.00US$41.00n/a16
Mar ’25US$40.45
US$47.56
+17.6%
11.5%US$60.00US$41.00n/a16
Feb ’25US$38.55
US$47.56
+23.4%
11.5%US$60.00US$41.00n/a16
Jan ’25US$42.66
US$50.31
+17.9%
12.7%US$66.00US$41.00n/a16
Dec ’24US$43.26
US$52.06
+20.3%
12.3%US$66.00US$41.00n/a16
Nov ’24US$44.81
US$51.44
+14.8%
12.2%US$68.00US$41.00n/a16
Oct ’24US$45.35
US$50.38
+11.1%
12.3%US$67.00US$39.00n/a16
Sep ’24US$46.47
US$50.25
+8.1%
12.2%US$67.00US$39.00n/a16
Aug ’24US$43.00
US$46.24
+7.5%
16.6%US$64.00US$33.00n/a17
Jul ’24US$38.30
US$46.88
+22.4%
18.8%US$64.00US$33.00n/a16
Jun ’24US$35.76
US$47.50
+32.8%
18.7%US$65.00US$33.00n/a16
May ’24US$36.33
US$47.94
+32.0%
18.5%US$68.00US$34.00n/a17
Apr ’24US$36.98
US$47.94
+29.6%
18.4%US$61.00US$34.00n/a16
Mar ’24US$40.08
US$50.44
+25.8%
15.8%US$66.00US$34.00US$40.4516
Feb ’24US$42.20
US$50.50
+19.7%
16.0%US$66.00US$34.00US$38.5516
Jan ’24US$43.01
US$51.50
+19.7%
16.7%US$68.00US$34.00US$42.6616
Dec ’23US$46.00
US$52.38
+13.9%
17.9%US$72.00US$33.00US$43.2616
Nov ’23US$49.88
US$50.75
+1.7%
18.2%US$72.00US$33.00US$44.8116
Oct ’23US$35.17
US$49.13
+39.7%
23.9%US$73.00US$33.00US$45.3515
Sep ’23US$37.98
US$46.67
+22.9%
20.7%US$64.00US$33.00US$46.4715
Aug ’23US$34.52
US$45.67
+32.3%
19.6%US$61.00US$31.00US$43.0015
Jul ’23US$30.39
US$49.00
+61.2%
19.0%US$68.00US$31.00US$38.3015
Jun ’23US$43.02
US$49.13
+14.2%
19.1%US$68.00US$31.00US$35.7615
May ’23US$38.08
US$49.67
+30.4%
15.3%US$60.00US$36.00US$36.3315
Apr ’23US$41.43
US$42.67
+3.0%
19.3%US$58.00US$34.00US$36.9815
Mar ’23US$35.25
US$36.24
+2.8%
11.6%US$45.00US$30.00US$40.0817

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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