How Investors May Respond To Hess Midstream (HESM) 2026 Outlook And Chevron-Aligned Board Shake-Up

• Hess Midstream LP recently outlined its 2026 outlook, guiding to net income of US$650 million–US$700 million with largely steady oil and gas throughput, while also significantly trimming capital spending and signaling continued distribution growth backed by free cash flow.
• At the same time, the company reshaped its board by naming existing director Kristi McCarthy as chair and adding Chevron executive Barbara Harrison, moves that tighten its alignment with Chevron’s long-term plans for Bakken production and midstream utilization.
• We’ll now examine how this 2026 guidance, especially the planned capital spending reduction, could reshape Hess Midstream’s existing investment narrative.

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Hess Midstream Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hess Midstream, you need to believe in long life, fee based cash flows from Bakken infrastructure that Chevron keeps using at high levels, supporting ongoing distributions and debt paydown. The new 2026 guidance, with flat volumes and lower capital spending, supports the near term distribution story, while the biggest risk remains any shift in Chevron’s Bakken drilling plans that could pressure long run throughput. The latest news does not materially change that near term risk balance.

The most relevant update here is the sharp cut in 2026 capital spending to about US$150 million, with further reductions expected through 2028, alongside at least 5 percent annual distribution growth targets funded from free cash flow. This combination reinforces the current catalyst of high cash returns to unitholders, but it also raises the stakes if Bakken volumes or Chevron’s development priorities fall short of expectations in future years.

Yet behind the appealing distribution growth profile, investors should be aware of how dependent Hess Midstream remains on Chevron’s long term Bakken drilling and...

Read the full narrative on Hess Midstream (it's free!)

Hess Midstream's narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $769.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $478 million earnings increase from $290.9 million today.

Uncover how Hess Midstream's forecasts yield a $36.86 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from US$11.87 to US$74.21 per unit. Against this backdrop, Hess Midstream’s reliance on sustained Chevron backed Bakken throughput gives you a clear focal point for comparing those views and assessing how resilient the cash flow story might be under different production paths.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Hess Midstream - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Hess Midstream Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hess Midstream research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hess Midstream research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hess Midstream's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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