Will Chevron’s (CVX) Venezuela Crude and China LNG Deals Shift Its Global Growth Narrative?

• In August 2025, two Chevron-chartered tankers carrying Venezuelan crude arrived in US waters after the company received a restricted US Treasury license, while Chevron U.S.A. also secured a 10-year deal to supply 650,000 metric tons of LNG annually to China’s ENN LNG Trading Company Limited.
• These moves highlight Chevron’s efforts to diversify supply sources, increase operational flexibility, and expand its presence in key international energy markets.
• We'll explore how the new long-term LNG agreement with China could alter Chevron’s investment narrative and growth outlook.

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Chevron Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Chevron shareholder right now, you need to have confidence in the company's ability to maintain strong cash flows and shareholder returns, even as it faces shifting global energy dynamics and the ongoing energy transition. The recent arrival of Chevron-chartered Venezuelan crude shipments, enabled by a restricted US Treasury license, brings some immediate supply flexibility but is unlikely to materially alter short-term catalysts or shift the main risk: Chevron’s exposure to volatile oil demand and persistent pressure on its legacy hydrocarbon portfolio.

Of the recent announcements, the landmark 10-year LNG supply agreement with China's ENN LNG Trading Company is the most relevant to Chevron’s future outlook. This deal aligns directly with key catalysts around international growth and diversification, offering a potential counterbalance to risks of secular decline in oil revenues and long-term shifts in global energy consumption patterns.

But on the flip side, investors should not overlook the heightened risk tied to Chevron’s heavy reliance on oil and gas production, particularly as...

Read the full narrative on Chevron (it's free!)

Chevron's outlook anticipates $195.7 billion in revenue and $21.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario requires annual revenue growth of 1.1% and a $8.1 billion increase in earnings from the current level of $13.7 billion.

Uncover how Chevron's forecasts yield a $168.13 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-nine separate fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$119 to over US$393 per share. Against this backdrop, longevity of cash flows hinges on Chevron’s ability to counter energy transition risks through expanding global gas and LNG exposure, see how your outlook compares.

Explore 29 other fair value estimates on Chevron - why the stock might be worth 26% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Chevron Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Chevron research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Chevron research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Chevron's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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