We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Black Stone Minerals Valuation

Is BSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BSM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BSM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.9x
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BSM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BSM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.1x
DEN Denbury
8.5x-9.7%US$4.5b
KOS Kosmos Energy
6.9x1.1%US$3.0b
CRC California Resources
2.9x-19.4%US$3.3b
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas
6.1x-18.8%US$5.6b
BSM Black Stone Minerals
9.7x16.8%US$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BSM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-12.5%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (7.6x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BSM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BSM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio16.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BSM ($18.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($12.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BSM is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BSM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.75
US$20.40
+8.8%
9.1%US$23.00US$18.00n/a5
Nov ’23US$18.77
US$20.20
+7.6%
10.1%US$23.00US$18.00n/a5
Oct ’23US$15.65
US$19.80
+26.5%
11.7%US$23.00US$17.00n/a5
Sep ’23US$15.40
US$19.50
+26.6%
11.2%US$23.00US$17.00n/a4
Aug ’23US$15.07
US$19.50
+29.4%
11.2%US$23.00US$17.00n/a4
Jul ’23US$14.24
US$19.20
+34.8%
8.3%US$22.00US$17.00n/a5
Jun ’23US$16.59
US$18.80
+13.3%
9.2%US$22.00US$17.00n/a5
May ’23US$15.84
US$18.00
+13.6%
12.7%US$22.00US$15.00n/a5
Apr ’23US$13.58
US$15.40
+13.4%
8.8%US$17.00US$13.00n/a5
Mar ’23US$12.18
US$14.40
+18.2%
12.9%US$16.00US$11.00n/a5
Feb ’23US$11.81
US$14.20
+20.2%
12.9%US$16.00US$11.00n/a5
Jan ’23US$10.33
US$15.00
+45.2%
6.7%US$16.00US$14.00n/a4
Dec ’22US$10.75
US$14.75
+37.2%
8.8%US$17.00US$14.00US$18.754
Nov ’22US$12.63
US$14.21
+12.5%
9.9%US$17.00US$12.25US$18.776
Oct ’22US$12.07
US$12.75
+5.6%
16.6%US$17.00US$10.50US$15.656
Sep ’22US$10.29
US$12.42
+20.7%
15.8%US$16.00US$10.50US$15.406
Aug ’22US$10.65
US$12.50
+17.4%
15.1%US$16.00US$11.00US$15.076
Jul ’22US$10.99
US$12.17
+10.7%
13.8%US$15.00US$11.00US$14.246
Jun ’22US$10.08
US$12.00
+19.0%
15.2%US$15.00US$10.00US$16.596
May ’22US$10.27
US$11.50
+12.0%
13.0%US$14.00US$10.00US$15.846
Apr ’22US$9.13
US$11.00
+20.5%
13.9%US$13.00US$9.00US$13.586
Mar ’22US$9.15
US$10.50
+14.8%
17.2%US$13.00US$9.00US$12.186
Feb ’22US$8.76
US$10.00
+14.2%
18.3%US$13.00US$8.00US$11.816
Jan ’22US$6.68
US$9.17
+37.2%
20.3%US$13.00US$7.00US$10.336
Dec ’21US$7.02
US$8.83
+25.8%
22.1%US$13.00US$7.00US$10.756

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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