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BSM

Black Stone Minerals NYSE:BSM Stock Report

Last Price

US$15.65

Market Cap

US$3.3b

7D

5.4%

1Y

29.7%

Updated

01 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
BSM fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends2/6

BSM Stock Overview

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests.

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Black Stone Minerals
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$15.65
52 Week HighUS$17.36
52 Week LowUS$9.70
Beta1.08
1 Month Change1.62%
3 Month Change9.90%
1 Year Change29.66%
3 Year Change14.91%
5 Year Change-7.99%
Change since IPO-14.20%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 29

Black Stone Minerals: Distributions Should Increase Further In 2023

Summary Black Stone now expects 2022 production to come in at the low end of guidance due to well delays. 2023 production is expected to increase throughout the year, though, with an exit rate close to 40,000 BOEPD. Black Stone appears likely to maintain its current $0.42 distribution during 2022 and then increase it to around $0.475 to $0.50 in 2023 based on current strip prices. Distribution coverage would be around 1.1x to 1.2x in this scenario. Black Stone Minerals (BSM) indicated that its 2022 production would end up at the low end of its guidance due to delays with well completions on its acreage. Combined with the lowered expectations for commodity prices (based on current strip), I now expect Black Stone to keep its quarterly distribution at around $0.42 per unit (same as its Q2 2022 distribution) for the rest of the year. Black Stone does expect production to ramp up throughout 2023, with exit rate production approaching 40,000 BOEPD. While 2023 strip prices aren't as strong as before, they are still high enough for Black Stone to be able to increase its distribution from current levels. Thus, I have trimmed my expectations for Black Stone's 2023 distributions, but still believe that it could offer a quarterly distribution in around the high-40s or 50 cents per unit. At current 2023 strip, it would then have distribution coverage of 1.1x to 1.2x, allowing it to put some funds towards debt reduction and unit repurchases as well. 2H 2022 Outlook Black Stone noted that it expected its 2022 production to end up at the low end of its original guidance for 34,000 to 37,000 BOEPD. This was due to some delays with operators getting wells into production on Black Stone's acreage. As a result, Black Stone's 2H 2022 production may average around 35,000 BOEPD. At current strip (roughly $87 WTI oil and $7.45 Henry Hub natural gas) for the second half of 2022, Black Stone may generate $369 million in revenues before hedges during the second half of the year. Its 2H 2022 hedges have an estimated value of negative $105 million. Type Barrels/Mcf Realized $ Per Barrel/Mcf Revenue ($ Million) Oil (Barrels) 1,835,400 $86.00 $158 Natural Gas [MCF] 27,627,600 $7.50 $207 Lease Bonus and Other Income $4 Hedge Value -$105 Total $264 This results in an estimate of $189 million in distributable cash flow for the second half of 2022, or $0.90 per common unit. $ Million Lease Operating Expense $6 Production Costs And Ad Valorem Taxes $37 Cash G&A $19 Cash Interest $2 Preferred Distributions $11 Total Expenses $75 Black Stone may choose to keep its quarterly distribution at $0.42 per unit. This would be relatively low distribution coverage at 1.1x, but would still allow it to put $13 million towards debt reduction in the second half of the year, reducing its net debt to approximately $61 million at the end of 2022. Black Stone probably doesn't want to decrease its distribution, so it will look to 2023 to put more money towards debt reduction. Updated 2023 Outlook I am keeping Black Stone's projected 2023 production at around 38,000 BOEPD. Black Stone's management indicated that it expects production volumes to increase throughout 2023 and approach 40,000 BOEPD by the end of 2023, primarily due to activity in the Austin Chalk and Shelby Trough plays. Thus, at current 2023 strip of approximately $75 WTI oil and $5.45 NYMEX gas, I project Black Stone to generate $621 million in revenues before hedges, while its 2023 hedges have an estimated value of negative $13 million. Type Barrels/Mcf Realized $ Per Barrel/Mcf Revenue ($ Million) Oil (Barrels) 3,781,400 $74.00 $280 Natural Gas [MCF] 60,531,600 $5.50 $333 Lease Bonus and Other Income $8 Hedge Value -$13 Total $608 This leads to a projection that Black Stone can generate $473 million in distributable cash flow during 2023 at the current strip. This is $2.26 per common unit.

Shareholder Returns

BSMUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D5.4%2.2%-2.5%
1Y29.7%32.0%-23.2%

Return vs Industry: BSM underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 32% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BSM exceeded the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BSM's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BSM volatility
BSM Average Weekly Movement4.6%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement8.1%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: BSM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BSM's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1876n/aThomas Carterhttps://www.blackstoneminerals.com

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.8 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.7 million gross acres located in 41 states in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a total estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves of 59,824 barrels of oil equivalent.

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. Fundamentals Summary

How do Black Stone Minerals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BSM fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$3.28b
Earnings (TTM)US$254.16m
Revenue (TTM)US$651.02m

12.9x

P/E Ratio

5.0x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BSM income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$651.02m
Cost of RevenueUS$75.04m
Gross ProfitUS$575.98m
Other ExpensesUS$321.83m
EarningsUS$254.16m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)1.21
Gross Margin88.47%
Net Profit Margin39.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio8.2%

How did BSM perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.7%

Current Dividend Yield

106%

Payout Ratio