Is Radian Group (RDN) Quietly Undervalued After Its Steady Multi‑Year Share Price Climb?

Radian Group (RDN) has quietly rewarded patient shareholders, with the stock up about 10% over the past year and more than doubling over five years, even as annual revenue growth stays fairly flat.

See our latest analysis for Radian Group.

At a share price of $35.88, Radian’s steady climb, including a solid year to date share price return, lines up with its strong multi year total shareholder returns. This suggests momentum is still quietly building rather than fading.

If Radian’s slow and steady climb has you thinking about what else might be compounding under the radar, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Radian trading close to analyst targets but still showing a sizable intrinsic value gap, the key question now is simple: is this a mispriced compounder, or has the market already baked in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.2% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting modestly above Radian Group’s last close of $35.88, the story leans toward a quiet undervaluation that hinges on specific housing market dynamics.

The ongoing entry of millennials and first-time homebuyers into the housing market is driving persistently strong housing demand, which is reflected in Radian's all-time high mortgage insurance in force and continued growth in new insurance written, supporting future revenue growth.

Housing supply constraints and elevated home prices are resulting in higher loan-to-value ratios, which increases the need for private mortgage insurance providers like Radian and bolsters the long-term stability of premium revenue and portfolio persistency.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the full playbook behind this valuation? The narrative quietly leans on slowing margins, constrained top line growth and a future earnings multiple that still implies upside. Curious how those moving parts combine into that fair value?

Result: Fair Value of $38.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent affordability pressures or sharper than expected weakness in mortgage originations could quickly undermine housing demand assumptions that underpin Radian’s quiet undervaluation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Radian Group narrative.

Build Your Own Radian Group Narrative

If this perspective does not fully resonate or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in under three minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Radian Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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