Earnings Beat: Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

As you might know, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 7.7% to hit US$15b. Morgan Stanley reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.88, which was a notable 19% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Morgan Stanley

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Morgan Stanley's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$62.6b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 19% to US$7.86. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$62.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.85 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$117, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Morgan Stanley, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$135 and the most bearish at US$97.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Morgan Stanley'shistorical trends, as the 6.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 5.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.8% annually. So although Morgan Stanley is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Morgan Stanley going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Morgan Stanley that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.