Morgan Stanley Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Morgan Stanley is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 4% and 4.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 6.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 17.2% in 3 years.
Key information
4.0%
Earnings growth rate
6.34%
EPS growth rate
| Capital Markets earnings growth | 11.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.4% |
| Future return on equity | 17.19% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 06 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • Apr 17
Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Morgan Stanley...Analysis Article • Oct 18
Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 28
MS: Higher Future P/E Multiple Will Likely Restrain Long Term Returns
Analysts now set a higher price target for Morgan Stanley at $165, up from $150.65, reflecting updated assumptions that include a slightly lower discount rate, more moderate revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Morgan Stanley repurchased 10,000,000 shares for US$1,750 million between January 1, 2026 and March 31, 2026, representing 0.63% of shares under its existing buyback program (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Apr 17
Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Morgan Stanley...Seeking Alpha • Apr 15
Morgan Stanley: A Strong Company At A Fair Price
Summary Morgan Stanley (MS) delivered a strong Q1, with EPS of $3.43 and revenue up 16% to $20.6 billion, driven by wealth management and Wall Street operations. MS’s wealth management segment posted robust organic growth, steady fee-based revenues, and resilient margins, with fee-based AUM up 19% to $2.8 trillion. Trading and investment banking benefited from market volatility and elevated M&A, while investment management faced ongoing fee pressure and lower performance fees. I maintain a 'hold' rating with a raised price target of $195, citing moderate upside and a secure capital return profile, favoring MS on pullbacks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 14
Morgan Stanley (MS): The "Institutional Engine" and the Q1 2026 Earnings Milestone
Morgan Stanley (MS) took center stage on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 , as its stock surged to $191.15 USD (up 4.32% ) following a record-breaking first-quarter report. The central narrative for Q1 2026 is "The Yield Mastery" : After a transitional 2025, Morgan Stanley has successfully capitalized on market volatility and a "Better" dealmaking rebound to deliver its most profitable quarter in history.
Narrative Update • Apr 14
MS: Buybacks And Stable Credit Costs Will Support Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Morgan Stanley by about $5 to roughly $190, pointing to slightly adjusted assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as the key drivers of the update. What's in the News Morgan Stanley reported fourth quarter 2025 charge-offs of $87 million, mainly tied to a single commercial real estate loan that had been largely provisioned for in earlier periods (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 31
MS: Future Upside Will Depend On Ongoing Buybacks And Underwriting Fees
Analysts have kept the Morgan Stanley price target steady at $221.00, indicating that only small adjustments in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions broadly offset one another in their updated models. What's in the News Morgan Stanley completed a share repurchase of 16,378,741 shares, representing 1.03% of shares, for a total of US$2,584.3m under the buyback announced on July 1, 2025.Narrative Update • Mar 17
MS: Buybacks And Lower Credit Costs Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Morgan Stanley from $169.52 to $195.81. They cite updated assumptions that include revised revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate and future P/E inputs.Narrative Update • Mar 03
MS: Future Returns Will Rely On Buybacks And Higher Underwriting Profitability
Analysts have maintained their $221.00 price target for Morgan Stanley, noting that slight adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E assumptions have influenced this view. What's in the News Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC has been added as a co-lead underwriter for the bank's US$3.25 billion fixed income offering, alongside MUFG Securities Americas Inc.Narrative Update • Feb 17
MS: Future Returns Will Rely On Buybacks And Higher Profitability
Analysts have maintained their $221.00 price target for Morgan Stanley, pointing to only slight tweaks in assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as supporting factors rather than drivers of a new valuation view. What's in the News Morgan Stanley reported fourth quarter 2025 charge offs of $87 million, primarily linked to a single commercial real estate loan that had been largely provisioned for in earlier periods (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 03
MS: Future Returns Will Rely On Buybacks And Higher Profitability
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Morgan Stanley from US$202.00 to US$221.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E levels. What's in the News Morgan Stanley reported fourth quarter 2025 charge-offs of $87 million, primarily tied to a single commercial real estate loan that had been largely provisioned for in earlier periods (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 20
MS: Higher P/E And Aggressive Buybacks Will Likely Restrain Future Returns
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Morgan Stanley to US$150.65 from US$135.73, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Morgan Stanley recorded fourth quarter 2025 charge-offs of US$87 million, primarily tied to a single commercial real estate loan that had been largely provisioned for earlier periods (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 05
MS: Future Returns Will Rely On Buybacks And Higher Profitability
Analysts now place Morgan Stanley's fair value at US$202.0, up from US$160.0. This reflects updated assumptions for a 6.60% revenue growth rate, a 22.63% profit margin, and a forward P/E of 21.58 under a slightly higher 9.73% discount rate. What's in the News Morgan Stanley is working with a broad syndicate of European banks as Co-Lead Underwriters on a €1.75b fixed income offering, including Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Nordea Bank Abp, ABN AMRO Bank N.V., Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., Société Générale, Danske Bank A/S, NatWest Markets Plc, Standard Chartered Bank, Erste Group Bank AG, Natixis, ING Bank N.V., Belgium Branch, Banco de Sabadell S.A., Banco Santander S.A., Raiffeisen Switzerland Cooperative, and MUFG Securities EMEA plc (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 21
MS: Richer Multiple And Buybacks Will Likely Limit Future Return Potential
Analysts have raised their price target on Morgan Stanley from approximately 101 dollars to about 136 dollars. This reflects increased confidence in the bank's higher projected revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a modestly richer future price to earnings multiple, despite a slightly higher discount rate.Narrative Update • Dec 07
MS: Share Repurchases And Credit Costs Will Support Stable Outlook
Narrative Update Analysts have raised their price target on Morgan Stanley by about 1 dollar to approximately 170 dollars. This change reflects slightly higher expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future earnings multiples.Narrative Update • Nov 22
MS: Share Repurchase Activity And Margins Will Maintain Stable Outlook Ahead
Morgan Stanley's analyst price target remains unchanged at $168.15. Analysts cite stable revenue growth and profit margin expectations, which offset minor adjustments to the discount rate and forward P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 08
MS: Share Repurchase Program Will Balance Minor Financial Improvements Ahead
Analysts have raised Morgan Stanley's price target slightly to $168.15 from $167.35, citing minor improvements in revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Morgan Stanley completed the repurchase of 7,440,032 shares for $1,084.14 million between July and September 2025.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Digital Platforms Will Expand Advisory Reach Amid Ongoing Buyback Initiatives
Analysts have raised their price target for Morgan Stanley from $154.75 to $167.35. They cited modest improvements in valuation factors, even though there were minor downward adjustments in growth and margin estimates.Analysis Article • Oct 18
Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market...Narrative Update • Oct 11
Digital Platforms And Global Wealth Transfer Will Widen Advisory Reach
Analysts have raised their price target for Morgan Stanley from $145.90 to $154.75, citing slightly improved revenue growth estimates and profit margin expectations as key factors in their updated assessment. What's in the News E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley launched Power E*TRADE Pro, a highly customizable desktop platform for active traders.Narrative Update • Sep 27
Digital Platforms And Global Wealth Transfer Will Widen Advisory Reach
Morgan Stanley’s consensus analyst price target saw a modest increase to $145.90, reflecting essentially unchanged expectations for revenue growth and future P/E multiples. What's in the News E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley launched Power E*TRADE Pro, a sophisticated desktop trading platform targeting active traders, amid a 26% year-over-year increase in self-directed daily average revenue trades.Analysis Article • Jul 21
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $1.00
Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment on...Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
Morgan Stanley: Overlooked Inflection Points Have Emerged
Summary Morgan Stanley's Q1 earnings beat estimates, but emerging risks in net interest income and investment banking warrant attention. Fundamental concerns include rising provisions, asset-liability management challenges, and declining IPO volumes. Unfortunately, we see a continuation of these trends. Wealth Management shows resilience, acting as a stabilizing force, amid market volatility. Despite its strong dividend profile, Morgan Stanley seems grossly overvalued, and historical price risk probably necessitates caution in the current systematic environment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 13
Morgan Stanley Q1: Private Markets Will Drive Growth
Summary Morgan Stanley's unique fee-based revenue model makes it resilient to volatile interest rates, positioning it well for future growth, especially in a falling interest rate environment. The bank's focus on private market investments is a game-changing growth catalyst, with private markets poised to significantly outpace public markets in the coming years. Q1 results were strong, with a GAAP EPS of $2.60, beating estimates by 18.7%, and 17% year-over-year topline growth, highlighting the bank's resilience. Despite a premium valuation, Morgan Stanley's diversified, high-ROE earnings and forward EPS growth potential justify the bullish stance, making shares a strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 24
Morgan Stanley Is Not Priced For Recession: Rotten EMV Is Concerning
Summary Morgan Stanley shares are extremely overvalued and face significant downside risk in 2025, assuming economic contraction and bearish market conditions on Wall Street prevail. Key technical momentum indicators, including Ease of Movement and Force Index readings, are signaling severe weakness, reminiscent of the March 2020 pandemic panic. I rate Morgan Stanley a Sell/Avoid until more clarity on new government policies and financial market reactions to slower economic growth occur. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
Morgan Stanley: Solid Business, But Needs Direction To Buy
Summary Morgan Stanley is a blue chip financial stock which has emerged from a sea of competition over the decades, to become an industry leader. 1 of 5 financial stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, MS has achieved sustainable growth and a reasonable "moat." However, MS stock is far from cheap, and is currently at a technical (price analysis) decision point, which is not resolved. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 11
Bulls Chasing Morgan Stanley, Whose Dividend Growth Case Remains Strong
Summary Morgan Stanley gets upgraded to a buy from my prior hold rating, as several upside factors outweigh the high share price and overvaluation. The dividend yield of 2.6% is beating key peers, while the firm has a proven 5 year dividend CAGR. Q4 results not only saw YoY earnings growth, but pointed to growth in AUM and client inflows, which could drive future fees. The strong profit margin is worth noting, along with a lower expense ratio in Q4. Key downside risks include high valuation, and competition in the M&A space from rivals JPMorgan and Evercore. However, credit ratings are strong from all 3 major agencies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 26
Morgan Stanley: Valuation Reflects A Successful Transformation (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Morgan Stanley shares have surged over 50% in the past year, driven by strong Q4 earnings and a focus on recurring revenue in wealth management. The company's Q4 earnings of $2.22 exceeded estimates by $0.53, with revenue up 26% to $16.2 billion, showcasing excellent cost discipline. Despite impressive growth, the stock's current valuation suggests limited upside, leading to a downgrade from "buy" to "hold." Morgan Stanley's pivot to fee-based revenue has been successful, but future outperformance is likely limited as most gains are already priced in. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 21
Morgan Stanley: Some Of The Preferred Shares Still Yield 7%
Summary Morgan Stanley's strong Q3 performance saw a 17% non-interest revenue increase and a 37% rise in net income attributable to common shareholders. The Series E preferred shares offer a fixed 7.125% dividend, but there's a risk of the bank calling them due to falling interest rates. A long position in these preferred shares hinges on Morgan Stanley not calling them soon. Buying close to $25 mitigates call risk. I hold a small position in Series E preferred shares and would only consider adding post-ex-dividend date to minimize call risk impact. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 83,851 | 20,266 | N/A | N/A | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 81,153 | 19,441 | N/A | N/A | 14 |
| 12/31/2026 | 77,399 | 18,606 | N/A | N/A | 14 |
| 3/31/2026 | 73,174 | 17,503 | -3,950 | -1,011 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 70,296 | 16,249 | -20,787 | -17,889 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 68,532 | 15,563 | -6,747 | -3,679 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 65,612 | 14,141 | -20,941 | -17,670 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 63,959 | 13,691 | -30,333 | -26,974 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 61,497 | 12,800 | -2,100 | 1,362 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 58,282 | 10,619 | -31,702 | -28,190 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 56,117 | 9,853 | -10,629 | -7,120 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 54,470 | 8,960 | -22,820 | -19,311 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 53,611 | 8,530 | -36,948 | -33,536 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 53,380 | 9,260 | -33,033 | -29,780 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 53,192 | 9,492 | -44,277 | -41,080 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 52,927 | 9,834 | -19,646 | -16,501 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 53,388 | 10,540 | -9,475 | -6,397 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 55,245 | 12,019 | 4,990 | 7,948 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 57,023 | 13,109 | 14,909 | 17,629 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 58,678 | 14,126 | 4,896 | 7,331 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 59,751 | 14,566 | 31,663 | 33,971 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 58,825 | 14,240 | 6,035 | 8,232 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 55,706 | 13,253 | -2,464 | -763 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 54,441 | 12,892 | -23,803 | -22,188 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 47,996 | 10,500 | -26,675 | -25,231 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 45,260 | 9,319 | -1,248 | 23 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 43,682 | 8,782 | 18,627 | 20,227 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 40,505 | 7,766 | 45,917 | 47,568 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 41,377 | 8,512 | N/A | 40,773 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 39,110 | 7,787 | N/A | 33,730 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 38,950 | 7,747 | N/A | 34,958 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 39,316 | 7,985 | N/A | 11,698 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 40,107 | 8,226 | N/A | 7,305 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 41,059 | 7,337 | N/A | 18,528 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 40,384 | 6,999 | N/A | 9,573 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 39,277 | 6,322 | N/A | 8,053 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 37,945 | 5,607 | N/A | -4,505 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 37,466 | 6,645 | N/A | -11,031 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 37,178 | 6,473 | N/A | -25,084 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 36,584 | 6,311 | N/A | 1,296 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 34,631 | 5,507 | N/A | 5,383 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 33,350 | 4,758 | N/A | 19,502 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 32,218 | 4,189 | N/A | 28,435 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 33,111 | 4,426 | N/A | 20,906 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 35,226 | 5,687 | N/A | -4,463 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 35,093 | 3,189 | N/A | -14,568 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 36,080 | 3,882 | N/A | -13,194 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MS's forecast earnings growth (4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: MS's earnings (4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: MS's revenue (4.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MS's revenue (4.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 23:21 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Morgan Stanley is covered by 41 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Stephen Biggar | Argus Research Company |
| Jason Goldberg | Barclays |
| Jason Goldberg | Barclays |